Random Thoughts: The 1st pick of the NFL Draft

by  Drew Boylhart

Right now we have the Dolphins picking first.  They can choose any player they want without worrying that someone else might pick that player ahead of them.  They can pick from a number of players that other teams are interested in selecting themselves without any concerns.  So tell me,  why all the cloak and dagger crap?  Why, because they think they might be able to trade that pick if they leak that they are interested in a certain player?  I say, why leak!  If you are interested in trading that pick, it would seem to me that letting everyone know what players you are interested in will speed up the process much more than leaks will.  Let’s face it:  there are only two players in this draft being discussed as ones for which any team is willing to trade up.  Those two players are Matt Ryan (QB - Boston College) and Darren McFadden (RB - Arkansas).   All the other players have doubles to them.  By that I mean that if you miss out on picking Chris Long, you can pick Vernon Gholston.  If you miss out on selecting Jack Long, you can choose Ryan Clady and if you miss out on Glen Dorsey, then you have Sedrick Ellis.  In fact, even if you miss on Darren McFadden, you still have Rashard Mendenhall.  So, the truth is that Matt Ryan is the only player that, if a team felt they had to have him, would be considered as trade up material.  McFadden is in the mix for one reason only — Jerry Jones opened up his big mouth!

So, let’s get back to the Dolphins and this cloak and dagger business going on about the first pick in the draft.  By now I would guess that the Dolphins have a list of four or five players they would consider as the first pick of this draft.   If I were running the Dolphins war room, I would start negotiating with all four or five picks on a contract now.  You have the power now to control the agents;  once you make the pick, the power reverts to the agent and player.  The Dolphins’ best deal can be negotiated starting now and by using one agent’s ego against the other.  You will find at least one of those agents ready to make a deal because they want to be the agent that has the 1^st pick in the draft for future referral business to their firm.  After I have a deal in place with all of the four or five picks (and remember, the deal does not have to be the same for each player — just in place), now I can start to suggest that this slot is now for sale to the highest bidder because the teams that may be interested in one of those four or five players are going to get really nervous.  You all know by now that I do not think the top ten players in any draft are worth the money being invested, so for me, moving out of the top ten is not a problem.  I think a team that is in need of players and has the first pick of any draft should do whatever they can to get out of that position and trade for as many players they can get in the first three rounds to re-stock their team.  In fact, that first pick of the second round is a very valuable pick also and I would be very willing to trade that pick; however, it must be for draft picks in this draft and not for future draft picks.  The reason for that is that your job as a GM and coach depends on you turning a team around as fast as you can.  Why collect draft choices in future drafts when you, as a coach or GM, may not be around?   So Dolphins, get smart!  Your time to affect the first pick in this draft is now, either by trading it or negotiating a contract that will be the groundwork for all other salaries in this draft. 

Getting Things Straight

by  Drew Boylhart

Let’s get some things straight right now - There IS first round wide receiver talent in this draft.  The crap going around suggesting otherwise is just that, crap!  This happens every year.  This is why Rob and I started the two board system.  You can now see talent in every round of the draft.  The value of a player in a draft and the ability for a player to be successful at the next level in a draft are two different issues. 

1) Talent does not fluctuate - Value does. 

The value or draft position of a player will fluctuate because of team needs, free agent signings, depth of talent at a position and background issues.

Our Talent Board Rating (TBR) does not fluctuate because a players talent does not change. 

2) Success in the NFL has nothing to do with the value of a player in a draft.  It has to do with his talent, maturity, intelligence, injuries and the ability to be coached - not the value of a player to a team on a draft list. 

Remember - scouts have all, if not most, of the information they are checking already before the combine starts.  There might be some weight changes and some speed gained or lost but if you didn’t know that Darren McFadden RB Arkansas runs in the 4.30 range or Chris Johnson RB East Carolina also will run in that same range before the combine then you are not a very good scout. It might be exciting to the press but anybody that has watched film on any player in this draft should have a pretty good idea of how fast a player is compared too other players on the field!  You look at my profile of Dominique Rogers Cromartie CB Tennessee State before any of this nonsense started.  Do you really think that I was the only one in the entire football world who saw this type of talent?  I waited for the Senior Bowl to see were his LTI might be but not to evaluate the talent I saw on film! 

The truth about the wide receiver position in this draft is that teams who need wide receivers are signing them in free agency and therefore the need for a top WR drops and that makes the value of wide receiver position in general drop.  You can think of the value board in the same way we think about the consumer price index figures.  Need causes panic and also causes the overrating of the market value of a company and or a product.  The product in this case are players and the immediate needs at a position, plus the needs of future free agency issues of players already on a team, plus injuries, plus age are the true driving factors of the changing value board.  Not talent, talent is one constant that brings everybody back to reality. 

So keep watching the value board to see were your favorite players might be picked in this draft but if that player has a good TBR attached to him then don’t worry about his success at the next level.  That is if the TBR grade is right!  Those are the facts and this is why THR started the two board system.  Remember - think of the value board the same way you think about the consumer price index.  That index or value can be manipulated by many different variables but the talent of a player is the talent.

Random Thoughts: The Combine

 

Random Thoughts - Why a Talent and Value Board ?

Drew Boylhart Draft Chat Transcript

February 7, 2008

Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Draft, the huddle report | 2 Comments » Quick Hits : The Combine Posted by thehuddlereport.com on February 7, 2008 Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: NFL Draft, NFL Football, the huddle report | 2 Comments » Football Fragments - A Series of Interviews with Draft Statistics of the NFL - Part 5 Posted by thehuddlereport.com on February 7, 2008 Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: 2008 Draft, NFL Draft, the huddle report | No Comments » Random Thoughts - Senior Bowl Players to Watch Posted by thehuddlereport.com on February 1, 2008 Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: 2008 NFL Draft, NFL Draft, NFL Football, the huddle report | 11 Comments » Football Fragments - An Interview with NFL Draft Statistics – Part 4 Posted by thehuddlereport.com on January 30, 2008  A Series of Interviews with Draft Statistics of the NFL - Part 4 Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: NFL Draft, NFL Football, the huddle report | No Comments » Random Thoughts - Position Strength of the 2008 Draft Posted by thehuddlereport.com on January 25, 2008   by Drew Boylhart Every year the “experts” who mimic and repeat what they hear about players and the draft in general give us all a general talent grade for the draft before it starts.  They gather all the “inside” information and suggest to us if the draft is deep or if it is void of any real good talent.   As you know by now as far as I’m concerned, I have never seen a draft that does not have talent in it.  I believe you just have to find it.  It’s that simple.  If you team is suggesting to the press and in interviews that this draft or for that matter any other draft is weak and not very talented you can bet your team is screwed.  The draft always has talent and is good every year because if it wasn’t then teams who are in the playoffs year after year and are drafting at the bottom of every round would not be finding any talent and we all know that is not happening.  That being said - here is my take on the talent in this years draft.  OFFENSE QB - Excellent - Everybody is suggesting that this is not a good year for QB’s but that is just because the need for QB’s in the first round is not there like it has been for other drafts.  There are Franchise QB’s like Matt Ryan , JD Booty, and developmental Franchise QB’s like Chad Henne, Matt Flynn, Andre Woodson, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson. Then there are development starting QB’s like Brian Brohm, Paul Smith, Kevin O’Connel. Joe Flacco, TC Ostrander, Sam Keller and some even think that Colt Brennan might make it someday as a starter.  This is a very strong group with excellent potential.    RB - Excellent - There are Franchise RB’s and Developmental Franchise RB’s and Developmental Starting RB’s along with third down RB’s.  There will be RB’s in the Rookie free agent pool after the draft is over that will impact.  There always is. FB  - Very Good - There is a small group of very good FB’s but the NFL doesn’t use FBs for some ridicules reason.  Owen Schmitt is a joy to watch along with Patrick Hillis.  Jacob Hester will find a way to do what is asked of him and Jerome Felton is a dam good blocker to say the least.  At some point it’s going to dawn on coaches that the way to keep a QB from getting injured is to use a fullback! Not an H-back or a TE in the backfield, a fullback.  It’s just that simple. OL - Excellent - There is ONE pure Franchise LT Ryan Clady - There is ONE Franchise LT/LG Jake Long.  There are a ton of good developmental college LT’s that will have to be moved inside or to the right side.  That makes them developmental O-lineman with excellent potential to be starters and or franchise lineman.  Centers are very good developmental centers but have physical limitations that can be corrected with good coaching and drafting to fit systems.  TE - Solid -  there are only a few potentially complete TE’s in this draft.  The rest are Hybrids WR’s or H-Backs that will have problems unless they are drafted too fit a system. WR  - Excellent - Tall , fast, big, strong, quick, good hands.  Also you can take your pick of Possession WR, Speed WR’s, Special team WR’s.  It’s like going to a buffet table.  Very strong and deep into Rookie free agency.     DEFFENSE DT  - Very Good -  There is one pure Franchise DT, Sedrick Ellis.  Dorsey is good but will take time, Pressley has excellent talent and the rest will all need time and need better coaching and must be drafted into the system their talents can best be used.  DE  - Good - Chris Long, Vernon Gholston are franchise players.  Harvey reminds me of Jevon Kearse , take that for what it is worth.  Campbell has the size and the talent but no heart, Johnny Dingle has excellent potential but the rest are situational pass rushers with good developmental skills.  The biggest problem with this group except for Long Gholston and Dingle is heart, passion and work ethic.  The talent is there! LB  - Excellent - Keith Rivers, Dan Conner, Curtis Lofton, Philip Wheeler, Beau Bell,  all have franchise potential.  Then add to that the developmental potential to be a franchise or starting LB like, Ben Moffitt,  Jordon Dizon, Alvin Bowen, Curtis Gatewood, Thomas Williams,  Jonathan Goff.  Add to that a player or two or three in the rookie free agent pool and you got a hell of a linebacker draft. CB  - Good - You have Mike Jenkins, Reggie Smith, Antoine Cason as starting CB’s that good turn into Franchise CB’s.  The rest of the group has excellent developmental potential but it will take some time.  Special teams will save a few. S - Solid - No real standouts.  Plenty of talent and solid players.  Personally I’m not as high as everyone else is on Kenny Philips.  I think he is solid but not a stand out safety.  It looks like Kenny will be picked much higher then I think he should be because of his size.  But I don’t see the instincts.  Maybe he will prove me wrong!   Overall rating of this draft - Excellent just like it is every freaking year!!! Posted in Huddle Notes | Tagged: 2008 NFL Draft, NFL Draft, NFL Football, the huddle report | No Comments » « Previous Entries Next Entries »   Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Andreas09 by Andreas Viklund.