by Drew Boylhart

Bengals - Good draft by the Bengals except once again they cannot resist drafting a player who has a history of character issues in Jason Shirley (DT Fresno St).  Now we all see why Chad Johnson has a problem with staying and playing?  Marvin continues to talk out of his mouth and butt cheeks at the very same time!  Taking Jerome Simpson (WR Coastal Carolina) when others from bigger programs were on the board is a mistake also.  Remember, it’s all about LTI.  I’m sure Jerome has the talent, but how long will it take for him to become a consistent threat on the field?

Bills - Another example of a team that got so excited after they made the first two picks, they lost their way the rest of the draft.   This is the same thing that happened to the Rams last year and you saw the repercussions of that in where the Rams drafted this year.  Two great picks do not make a draft.  There were too many players from big programs to pick from to make talent from small schools or weak division schools priority draft picks.   The way the Bills drafted on the second day, you would think they were a playoff team.  They did hit a home run with Leodis McKelvin (CB Troy) and James Hardy (WR Indiana) and for most draft “experts,” that’s all that matters…but not for me.  They blew the 2^nd day. 

Broncos - They got good talent, but I’m not sure most of the picks fit the defensive and offensive systems except for Peyton Hillis (RB Arkansas).  I think in a zone blocking offensive line system, this kid is going to be a big time RB.  Peyton and Ryan Clady (OT Boise St) might make people think this draft was an excellent draft (in the future)!

Browns - This is an example of a team that selected quality players with having only a few picks.  Drafting Beau Bell (LB UNLV) in the 4^th round of this draft just gave the Browns the future leader of their defense for years to come.  Ahtyba Rubin (DT Iowa St) should be an excellent player in that system as well.

Chargers - I told you that Antoine Cason (CB Arizona) had first round talent.  For all of you out there that think that I don’t evaluate talent, I guess you have to say the same about AJ Smith because AJ, along with me, believes that Antoine has 1^st round talent or he would not have drafted him in the 1^st round!   I like the Jacob Hester (FB LSU) pick also.  The rest of the draft doesn’t send shivers down my spine, but you have to ask yourself:  How many years have the Chargers (in spite of Philip Rivers) been in the playoff hunt? 

Chiefs - It’s hard to say that the Chiefs did not do well in this draft.  So I’m not going to be the first - in spite of the overall talent grade.  The reason is they did what they had to do to improve that football team.  My fear is that Glenn Dorsey (DT LSU) will be on the injured reserved list more than he will be on the 53- man roster.  But that’s my problem.   The Chiefs did the best they could with the head coach they have running the franchise. 

Colts - If they are having problems with a center then they draft a center.  If they need a LB, they draft an LB.  How do you argue with a team that goes to the draft and drafts good, solid players that fit their needs?!  I think Jacob Tamme (TE Kentucky), if picked by most any other team in the NFL, would not make the roster.  But in the Colts system with the QB they have, the kid should become a core player because he fits what they are trying to accomplish.  It takes more than talent to play in the NFL.  You look at this draft and you can see how true that is.  I cut my teeth on Bill Polian draft picks…this guy knows how to draft for this system both offensively and defensively.   

Dolphins - How in the hell do you draft your future starting LT Jake Long (Michigan) and QB Chad Henne (Michigan) in the same draft and it not be a mistake?  Then, you draft two guards who have excellent potential to start for you at some point in the first year.  For a resounding finish, you get some defensive linemen that, at worse, should wind up being solid rotation D-lineman.  This was a hell of a draft for the Dolphins.  Henne will start and beat out Beck for the starting QB position.  Oh - by  the way, I like Beck, but Henne is one pissed QB because he feels he should have been picked a lot earlier than he was and he is right! 

Jaguars - Yes, they did move up high in the draft, but they got the player they wanted — Derrick Harvey (DE Florida) — and for that, you have to give them credit.  Then they added to the pass rush and drafted Quentin Groves (LB Auburn).  You plan your work and then work your plan, which is exactly what the Jaguars did.  The Thomas Williams (LB USC) and Trae Williams (CB South Florida) picks were solid choices for players that should help right away.   This was a good draft!

Jets - This is another example of a team losing focus after their first two picks of the draft.  But somebody tell me really - did Mike and Eric go home after the first two picks?  Dwight Lowery (CB San Jose St) has never been the same player since he broke his jaw and no other CB’s?!  I like the Eric Ainge (QB Tennessee) selection; he has good developmental potential to be a starter and moxie enough to get through a few games if he is thrown into them early because of injuries to other QB’s in the first year.   

Patriots - Sometimes you too smart for your own good.  The Patriots move back in the top ten and miss out on Keith Rivers (LB USC).  However, they pick Jerod Mayo (LB Tennessee), so they were able to recover.  Then, you have the pick of Shawn Crable (LB Michigan) and don’t pick Beau Bell (LB UNLV).  I guess they didn’t pick Beau because Bill must think the New England winters will be too harsh for Beau to handle!  Matt Slater (WR/ST UCLA) should spice up the special teams and Bo Rudd (LB Nebraska) will fit the defense very well, but I do think you blew it on Beau Bell.  The leadership skills on this team are getting old along with your defensive talent and Bell would have been the answer.   

Raiders - Tell me this, what did the Raiders gain by drafting Darren McFadden (RB Arkansas)?  If Al had called me, I would have asked him the following question.  Business value and talent wise, what do you gain by drafting Darren McFadden and passing on Vernon Gholston (DE Ohio St)?   After the draft was over, I didn’t see that much difference in the talent of the RB position on your team.  The Raiders had excellent RB’s on the roster before you drafted Darren and no pass rush.  Even after you drafted Darren, you have excellent talent at the RB position, but you still HAVE NO PASS RUSH!!       

Ravens - I just don’t get it and I guess I never will.  After all, it’s not like I really know what the hell I’m talking about!  It’s not like I have run businesses for a living and understand economics and realize that putting my $800 million dollar business in the hands of a 23 year old QB who has never played successfully more than one year at a Division II school is a risky proposition.  Even though Joe Flacco (QB Delaware) was blessed with a golden arm, he still could not beat out Tyler Palko as QB of a Division I program.   I don’t care if Joe Flacco becomes the greatest QB to ever play the game of football.  The information that you have in front of you at the time you drafted this kid does not come close to suggesting that this kid can be anything more than a solid QB in about four or five years from now.  Moving up to pick Joe in the first round and demanding that he become something that most likely is not going to be attainable, is without a doubt, one of the worst things you could have done to this kid.  Ozzie should be ashamed of himself.  The NFL is big business and if Ozzie can’t get that through his head, then he needs to get another job.  Yes, you still develop players from the draft, but fans of the NFL should not have to pay full price to wait for your prize draft pick in the first round to develop anymore.  I feel bad for Joe Flacco.  He does have talent and he looks like he is a great kid.  My problem is with Ozzie and whoever else approved drafting a one year wonder from a Division II School just because he has a great arm.  This is not the 1960’s.  There is way too much money being paid out by the fans and sponsors to risk this pick.  Maybe the people running teams get paid too much money because they don’t seem to understand how expensive it is for the average fan to purchase season tickets!  But let me try to explain something to you:  your salary is being paid mostly by people who do not earn even close to what you earn in a year.  Owning an NFL team is no longer a hobby.  You do not have the luxury anymore to pick a player in the first round in the hope that in six or seven years, he turns the franchise around.   I can say this, you got a hell of a player in Ray Rice (RB Rutgers) and if Willis McGahee ever gets injured, he will not get back on to the field.   Maybe Ray Rice and Troy Smith will save Ozzie’s ass because if I were a Ravens season ticket holder, I would be one pissed person right now.  Ozzie, do yourself a favor.  Next time you think that it is all right to put a $ 800 million dollar franchise in the hands of a 23 year QB from a Division II school after he has one year of success after transferring from a Division I school where he couldn’t beat out a QB that was not even drafted, call me.  I’ll help you make the decision.

Steelers - The Draft just came to this team on a platter and I’m sure they were as surprised about it as anyone else.  Rashard Mendenhall (RB Illinois) according to everybody but me, fell to them at #23.  He fits their offensive scheme and with Willie Parker, this running game will become the power of the team once again.  Drafting Limas Sweed (WR Texas) gives them a good player who should help Ben in the passing came if he can stay off the injured list.  The pick of Denis Dixon (QB Oregon) is just perfect.  You all know by know that I think Denis is going to be a hell of a QB, particularly now that he can develop at his own pace.  If big Ben gets injured, this kid will be able to run the team very effectively.  Good talent, good draft.  See what happens when you don’t panic!    

Texans - This is another team that needs to pick up the phone and call me.  Duane Brown (OT Virginia Tech) has talent, but he was not a consistent offensive lineman at the college level.  If the coaching staff of the Texans is thinking about starting this kid at the LT position, then you just got your QB put on the injured reserve list.  In fact, if you are thinking about starting this kid at all, you better give your QB a bike.  Can Duane become a good LT sometime in the future?  The answer to that is yes!  But to pick him in the first round and put that kind of pressure on him when he could not handle being consistent at the college level is a big mistake.  This draft was a big disappointment.   

Titans - The Titans got very good talent and added speed to their team.  This was a good draft and if Vince Young can take more of a back seat and let others do the job, the Titans just might be one of the surprise teams of the NFL this year.  Jason Jones (DE Eastern Michigan) could be the Justin Tuck of this draft.  Chris Johnson (RB East Carolina) is fast and given some time to develop, just might become a Brian Westbrook style of RB.  Until he does develop, he will impact on third downs and special teams.  He has the type of speed and quickness that scares the crap out of defensive coordinators and they will have problems game planning for this kid.  I was surprised the Cowboys did not draft him at #22 instead of Felix Jones.  This was a good draft for the Titans.

by Drew Boylhart

49ers - This was a weird draft for the 49ers.  It was almost like they weren’t in it at all.  They got good talent in the first three rounds, but after that, I think they just said the hell with it and packed up and went home.  Kentwan Balmer (DL North Carolina) has solid talent and fits their system.  Chilo Rachal (OL USC) also has strong abilities/potential and Reggie Smith (CB Oklahoma) should be a good solid player as well…unfortunately, after that, they seemed to lose their way. 

Bears - How do you not look for a QB in this draft?  You cannot tell me that picking up a QB in the rookie free agency pool will be better than drafting a QB.  I love the overall talent the Bears got in their draft, but not drafting a QB was a big mistake.  You passed on Josh Johnson (QB San Diego St) and Matt Flynn (QB LSU)!  You had a hell of a draft, but not drafting a QB and thinking you will be able to pick one up in free agency could be a big mistake.   

Buccaneers - Sometimes collecting talent is a good thing and sometimes it is not.   This is a team that usually lacks direction on draft day, but I have to say that this year they got the most talented overall group of players in this draft.  I’m not sure how any of them fit the system the Buccaneers use, but they do have talent. 

Cardinals - This is another team that did very well picking talented players.   Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (CB Tennessee St) is a hell of a talent.  Early Doucet (WR LSU) is that sneaky type of receiver in the mold of an Isaac Bruce who just beats you like a drum and you don’t know how or why, but at the end of the game, you wish he hadn’t.   

Cowboys - Jerry Jones has become a person who understands how to run a draft.  As they say, he plans his work and works his plan.  He is no longer panicking when a player he wants goes off the board.  He wanted Felix Jones (RB Texas) and he got him.   He wanted a corner and he went out and got Mike Jenkins (CB South Florida).  He needed a back up of both picks with players who will push both the rookies and the veterans, so he selected Tashard Choice (RB Georgia Tech) and Orlando Scandrick (CB Boise St).  A very smart draft and the 4^th he gave up for Pacman seems logical even if you do not agree with Pacman being a Cowboy. 

Eagles - They didn’t pick until the second round and they land Trevor Laws (DL Notre Dame) who will improve the Defensive line the day he steps on the field.   DeJuan Jackson (WR California) is also a good pick in the 2^nd round and Mike McGlynn (OL Pittsburgh) will help change the mental strength of this team in the most positive way. 

Falcons - The Falcons got the QB of the future in Matt Ryan (Boston College) and added a ton of speed to this team.  Harry Douglas (WR/ST Louisville) will open up the slot and become a favorite target for Matt Ryan.  Thomas Brown (RB Georgia) will help big time when Mike Turner gets hurt.  Chevis Jackson (DB LSU) and Curtis Lofton (LB Oklahoma) will add leadership and toughness to the defense.  The big mistake is Sam Baker (OL USC) — he might make it as a guard, but the jury will be out until he does. 

 Giants - Like I told one of the members, this is the type of draft that, the more you look at it, the more it grows on you.  Kenny Philips (S Miami) is a solid, but not impacting, safety.  Terrell Thomas (CB USC) is another smart, solid CB who fits the system very well.  Bryan Kehl (LB BYU) is an excellent fit along with Jonathan Goff (LB Vanderbilt).  Not thrilled about Mario Manningham (WR Michigan) but maybe I’m wrong — maybe he will play on every down and run every route out and block for his teammates.  I mean look at the person he has to learn from…Plexico Burris!   Plexico doesn’t practice, run routes out or block for teammates and plays when he feels like it.  And the Giants still won the Super Bowl!  So, I guess when Plexico’s contract is up the Giants will have a replacement. 

 Lions - The Lions got solid talent.  Gosder Cherilus (OT Boston College) is a good player.  Jerome Felton (FB Furman) could develop into an excellent red zone back and Caleb Campbell (S Army) will surprise the Lion fans with his athletic ability; he should become a fan favorite and a core player on defense.  Jordon Dizon (LB Colorado) is a very good overachieving LB and Kevin Smith (RB Central Florida) is a power running back that, if the line blocks well for him, could surprise a lot of people with his ability to gain yardage.  

Packers - This was an excellent draft for the Packers; they got smart players and they believe in the THR system.  The last few years, the Packers have been one of the better drafting teams and have scored very well on our boards.  They are definitely one of the teams in the NFL that think about the draft the way that we here at THR do.  They drafted two QB’s — Brian Brohm (QB Louisville) and Matt Flynn (QB LSU).   Now, some will suggest that they are not sure about Aaron Rodgers so they drafted two QB’s.  I don’t believe that for one minute.  One QB is to develop and use as a back up and the other QB will be developed and used in the future to gain more picks in future drafts.  Both QB’s fit the style of offensive system the Packers use.  That is smart drafting.  Add to this Jordy Nelson (WR Kansas ST) who is a WCO dream come true for a QB, Jeremy Thompson (DE Wake Forest) — a smart DE who will develop into one of the better players from this draft — and Breno Giacomini (OT  Louisville) who, if he matures, might wind up being a Pro Bowl offensive tackle.  This is how a playoff team drafts and stays a playoff team.  You draft players with a little longer LTI, but the players have excellent talent and the veterans can see the talent right away and know they have to continue to improve if they want to keep their jobs.  LTI is different for every team.   Playoff teams should look for very talented players who have a longer LTI and teams that are not in the playoffs should look for players with a very quick LTI even if they have less talent than other players.     

 Panthers - Another team who made a plan and then worked that plan.  They drafted Jonathan Stewart (RB Oregon), then made a push for Jeff Otah (OT Pittsburgh).  I’m not a big fan of Jeff Otah, but if a team wants a player and goes and gets that player then that is all that matters.   Charles Godfrey (CB Iowa) has good talent and Dan Connor (LB Penn St) is a hell of a player.  They got the players that fit their needs. 

Rams - The Rams got one of the best players in the draft, but then they followed it up by doing one of the wackiest things I have ever seen happen in a draft.  They left starting WR after starting WR on the board to pick a Special Teams player who plays the Wide Receiver position.  These guys are still confused when it comes to working the draft.  They have no plan…or the plan they have sucks.  Call me you need help.  If it wasn’t for the Chris Long pick, I’m not sure what you would have walked away with from this draft.  I told you last year that you mailed in the 2^nd day of your draft and that it would come back to haunt you.  I’m telling you again this year that you better hope you don’t have very many injuries.  Call me the number is 1 -8DR-AFT-HELP!

Redskins - They worked the THR formula the best I have seen.  They got good talent that fits the new system they will use on offense and all the players have a short LTI with the possible exception of Devin Thomas (WR Michigan St).  The thing about Devin is that, in a WCO, he fits like a glove.  The WR position that runs all those underneath routes will be what he was made for.  This will also shorten his LTI.  He will not be expected to learn or run all the routes of a normal offense.  Malcolm Kelly (WR Oklahoma) could be the offensive rookie of the year before it is all said and done.   When you use the THR method of drafting, you shall be rewarded and the Redskins offensive turn around will be a lot quicker than you think.  Colt Brennan (QB Hawaii) is a good fit also as a back-up WCO QB.  He is smart and if he is done with all of his issues, he should be able to help in the future.  

Saints - The Saints got excellent talent and filled some big needs.  This is another team that worked their plan and did it well.  Sedrick Ellis (DT USC) was the best DT in this draft.   DeMario Presley (DT NC St) is a perfect complement to Sedrick —  I’m calling them Fire and Lightning.  Carl Nicks (OT Nebraska) if he gets serious, will be a solid offensive tackle and Adrian Arrington (WR Michigan) has big time potential written all over him if he can just mature and get focused about playing football.   

Seahawks - The Seahawks got the best all around TE in this draft and let me tell you, the Buffalo Bills are pissed — they wanted this kid in a bad way.  John Carlson (TE Notre Dame) is very underrated and should be able to impact his first year.  Then they drafted Owen Schmitt (FB West Virginia) and Justin Forsett (RB California).  These are two players that will turn this team into a red zone nightmare.  Schmitt will bring back the days of former FB Tom Rathman during the early days of the WCO when the most important position was the FB!   Watch out for the Seahawks next year. 

Vikings - They got excellent talent and one of the better QB’s in this draft.  He is a perfect fit for what they are doing in Viking land.  John David Booty (QB USC) is a perfect fit and if Travarous Jackson gets hurt this year, he will not get back on the field.  Booty with Adrian Peterson and that new defense will go right to the playoffs. 

By Fred Jones

VALUE - A curious characteristic

Watch ESPN and listen to their experts describe value as it pertains to NFL draft prospects.  Not to be outdone, the experts on the NFL Network explain their definition of the value of a prospect.  Football editorials by gurus have addressed this concept time and again.  Many maintain that we must wait for a “couple of years” before we evaluate a player.  We’ve addressed it here at The Huddle Report.  Robby ranks the prospects on his Value Board.  We have also introduced the concept of length-to-impact (LTI) that has its basis on value.  So the concept of a prospect’s value has been pretty much clarified for us.  WRONG!

Value is the regard that something is held to deserve is an accepted definition of the term.  It is also defined as the material or monetary worth of something.  And it is also defined as the usefulness of something considered in respect of a particular purpose.  That said, we can apply any and all of these definitions to the value of an NFL prospect considered in the Draft.

First, we don’t have to wait a number of years or games to determine the value of a player.  From the common theme of the above definitions, value is in the eye of the beholder at the time the beholder selects a player.  Why is this definition valid?  It’s valid because the team selects that prospect above all others that are available at that time and intends to compensate that player on a monetary scale that certainly displays the value of the prospect to that team.  So the value of a prospect is determined by where he is selected in the Draft…period.

O.K., you say.  But what if that prospect does not perform and is traded or cut early in his career?  The answer is simple: his value has changed.  Value has a time aspect to it.  It’s just like the Enron stock you bought back in the early 90s.  It had a high monetary value.  Now it’s worthless.  Time changes value.  In financial terms, present value and future value are finite but different worthiness claims.  It’s the same for NFL prospects before the Draft, during the Draft and after the Draft.

Why did I harp on this topic for four paragraphs?  I did so because I want you to understand that the value of a player at draft time should be considered in the context of the Draft.  It gives the Draft importance.  Remember, there are a couple of hundred million dollars being committed to 256 prospects.  Did Jake Long sign a contract to play for the Dolphins without compensation?  Both the Dolphins and Jake Long saw value in their business association.  I say that’s the definition of value in my Funk & Wagnalls.

 by Drew Boylhart

 Vernon Gholston takes downs off - This has to be one of the most ridicules rumors started by a “Scout” that I have ever heard.  When there is a report that starts with “some scouts are saying” that means it’s a planted story.  It might have some half truths to entice you into thinking it has some meaning but the true meaning of the leak is to manipulate the person reporting the story.  Vernon this year had 15 tackles for losses and 14 sacks.  That is a total of 29 plays behind the line of scrimmage.  A blind scout touching the TV screen could feel the intensity of this kids play on the field!  I think the people repeating this rumor are eating way too much road kill!               

 Chris Long is a tweener - Again one of the most ridicules reports to come to my ears in years.  Chris Long is a strong side DE in a 4/3 defense and will be a good one.  A tweener does not have a true position.  Again a report started by a “scout” to manipulate the announcer who is reporting it.      

 Jonathan Stewart is rising on team’s draft boards - Jonathan never dropped.  His surgery was recommended by all the teams interested in drafting him after he ran a 4.45 sp at the combine.  He has always been rated as a top fifteen pick in the draft.      

 Jake Long might not be a true LT - Why would this be considered a reason not to draft Jake in the top five or as the first pick in the draft?   I think being able to use Jake as a LT, RT or LG is a positive not a negative.  In most systems he will be an excellent LT.  In a spread offense he will struggle as a LT.  I don’t see a spread offense until the Patriots pick in this draft and I bet if he drops to them they would lay a big fat kiss on the lips of Eric Mangini and draft him.           

 Matt Ryan is not a franchise QB - At least everybody reporting on the draft has been consistent with this false rumor.   The truth is that if Matt were not a franchise QB then teams in the top ten like Miami, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens would not be interested in him.  Not one of those teams has officially ruled out drafting Matt!  QB’s are rated on need and then talent.  Boston College would not have taken a sniff of a bowl game if it weren’t for Matt Ryan.     

 Darren McFadden is not that good a RB - He is long legged and long legged RB’s do not run that same way that regular sized RB’s run.  They do not run through tackles.  They run by them.  They make their cuts a yard earlier than a regular RB because their long stride takes them into a tackler faster so they cut early and go bye the tackler with a powerful stride and speed.  Darren McFadden reminds me of what I remember of Gayle Sayers and OJ Simpson.  That is the style of back that he is and that is his potential.  He is not the same style of runner that Adrian Peterson is.  I just wish the “experts” on TV would stop trying to compare the two players.  These two players have completely different styles of running.  Right now there is no back in the NFL that runs with the same style that Darren runs with. 

Joe (Fiasco) Flacco QB Delaware – I’m not sure why this kid is being touted as a high draft choice but it has gotten to the point were I’m wondering why he is not being considered to be a top ten pick in this draft the way everyone is talking about him.  I think the best way to get my point across is to quote an e-mail that was sent to me recently by one of our members. 

“You’re the only guy I can vent to about all this Joe Flacco hype. I’m glad the draft is 3 weeks away because I can’t take much more of this. I mean, doesn’t something have to be said for the kid who actually goes to a big-time program (any program for that matter) and COMPETES for a spot on the roster? The guy completely chickens-out at Pitt and decides to go to Delaware! Delaware man!! Then he shows up at the Senior Bowl and completely sucks. The coaches had to give him the Ol’ Mercy pull out of the game just to keep his stock from dropping like Colt Brennan’s. Then he comes to the Combine where there is no defense in front of him and throws some pretty spirals. Now Kiper and Mayock have this joker rated as the #2 QB in the draft. Can you believe that? I think they should have their credentials stripped immediately and be made to scout women’s college track and field for a minimum of 10 years. Ridiculous. I seem to get laughed at a lot when I say that I’d draft Matt Flynn before Joe Flacco but I’ve got a feeling that you’ll agree with me.”

I could not have said it better myself.  As I say “It takes more than talent to play in the NFL”.  Someday Scouts, GM’s, and Coaches are going to realize that.  We know the fans do!         

Glen Dorsey DT LSU – If you think that Glen is going to be the impact player in the NFL the way he was in college then all I have to say to you is ask these players who were picked in the 2003 draft – Dwayne Robertson DT #4, Jonathan Sullivan DT # 6, Jimmy Kennedy DT # 12, Ty Warren DT #13, William Joseph DT # 25.  Except for Ty Warren all of these players have struggled to come close to their college performance.  The reason is very simple, on the field work ethic!       

Devin Thomas WR Michigan St – I’m not going to suggest that Devin is going to be a complete bust because the kid has talent.  I am suggesting that if he is taken too high in the draft and force him on to the field to produce right away like a #1 WR then there will be problems.  Devin has a lot to learn about how to run routes.  I mean a lot to learn.  His impact route at the college level was an underneath crossing route against LB’s.  That is not enough at the NFL.  There is a reason he did not run the rest of the tree route.  He has trouble going over the middle and it will take him some time to conquer that problem.  Not to mention – learn to run the other routes and get separation.  It takes more than speed to be a good WR in the NFL.     

Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh – Jeff does not like the LT position.  He likes the money but not the responsibility of playing that position.  He has the talent but he is not consistent and falls into very bad habits doing the game.  Jeff can be a good LT or RT but he will not be a consistent offensive lineman to be a LT.  If you draft him and think that he will learn to be more responsible and consistent then you are in for a big surprise.  If Jeff is taken too high in this draft and forced to play LT he will struggle big time until you put him over on the right side and even then his lack of consistency will rear its ugly head at the worst of times.   

Brian Brohm QB Louisville – Brian struggles with pressure at the college level.  He has good skills but he goes to pieces against a hard pass rush at the college level.  He did improve this year but only enough to be productive and not enough to win.  I’m not sure if Brian will improve much beyond the level his is right now and that means he should not be taken in the first three rounds of this draft so that he can mature slowly.  Brian has AJ Feeley disease.  That means as long as he is a back up he looks like he could be a pretty good starter.  But as soon as you count on him to be your starter his negatives outweigh the positives.   

These are just some of the overrated players in this draft.  If you go to Rob’s value board and look at the TBR column you will see the possibility for a whole lot more.  Some owners are starting to use us to keep track of what is being said about players to keep a scorecard on their Draft Management teams.  All I can say to that is – it’s about time.  I pity the draft management team that drafts Joe (Fiasco) Flacco on the first day of this draft with the suggestion that this kid is going to come close to starting in the NFL.  I can see it know.  Joe will start, throw a touch down pass and throw for over two hundred yards but will also throw two interceptions and fumble the ball and the coaches will blame it all on the rest of the team. It will be the WR ran the wrong route or the LT did not do his job or on and on and on when the truth is that Joe is not mentally capable of handling a NFL pass rush and making decisions.  I suspect that Joe will go through two head coaches and four offensive coordinators before somebody will have the guts to hold Joe responsible and then it will be too late.

by Drew Boylhart

If you are a THR member then you know by know that my personal top ten have nothing to do with who will actually be drafted in the top ten.  Rob’s value board will give you that information.  The first year I did this I listed Nick Mangold OC Jets - in my top ten and believe me the reaction to naming a center, as one of the top ten players in a draft was unbelievable.  But I guess the Jets felt the same way about his talent as I did because they drafted him in the first round.  I don’t go out of my way just to shock people and list players that have no chance of being picked in the top ten of this draft.  The list consist of who I feel will have the greatest impact based on what I see on film.

  Jake Long OT  - Jake will be an excellent offensive lineman and if he can fit into your system as a LT then you have improved two positions with drafting one player.  You have improved the QB position by giving the QB more time to make decisions along with the upgrade at the LT position.  You can not tell me that improving two positions with just one pick is not one of the better things you can do in a draft. 

 Vernon Gholston DE/OLB - Vernon is the most explosive defensive player in this draft.  He is a multi -talented player who can play more than one position.  Vernon could be as impacting for the team that drafts him as Lawrence Taylor was when Lawrence played for the Giants.  I think that says it all. 

 Darren McFadden RB - Darren is the most explosive offensive player in this draft.  I have seen him run in a single back set and with a fullback in a two back set.  I have seen him run through the tackles with power, strength, lateral agility, vision and excellent techniques.   I have seen him catch the ball out of the backfield and also block for his QB.  Darren runs with the same style as Gayle Sayers and OJ Simpson did.  These are long striding RB’s that run with excellent balance and make their cuts with power and strength way ahead of were the average back would make their cuts.  Darren is a franchise back and concerns of his lack of maturity off the field are a concern but not a reason to down grade him. 

 Matt Ryan QB - Matt is a franchise QB with a good arm and excellent leadership quailities and intelligence.  The only reason teams are down grading him is because the need for a QB by the teams that have top ten picks just is not there.  You can not tell me that Matt Ryan is not as good as Philip Rivers was when Philip was eligible for his draft!  Think about it. 

 Chris Long DE/OLB - Chris is the type of player that you will never be sorry you drafted him.  He will improve every year and will be one of the leaders of his team.  Chris is the type of player you build your defense around because of his talent and work ethic.  As a player you want to play along side of Chris because he will make you better.   I would not hesitate for one minute to pick Chris with the first pick in this draft because of all the intangibles that he brings with him. 

 Those are my top five picks and as far as I’m concerned you can but them in any order that you want to.  Every one of these top five players is worthy of being the first pick in this draft.  The needs of my team would dictate the order.        

 Branden Albert OL - Brandon is an outstanding offensive lineman who can play more than one position depending on the offensive system of the team that drafts him.  Brandon has the talent to play OG or OT on the left or right side of your line.  Next to Jake Long, Brandon is the next best offensive lineman in this draft and will start and impact the day after you draft him.          

 Sedrick Ellis DL - Sedrick is a multi talented defensive lineman that can play in any style of defensive front that you use.  He can be a DE in a 3/4 and on passing downs you can move him inside.  He can play a penetrating DT in a 4/3 and he could play nose tackle on passing downs or be used in a slant DT position.  He will never stop trying to improve and his in the box quickness and intelligence are much more developed than any other DT in this draft.    

 Malcolm Kelly WR - Malcolm is the best WR in this very deep class of WR’s.  He has the size, strength, speed, football intelligence and determination to be the best.   Malcolm reminds me a lot of Terrell Owens and Eric Moulds but I believe he is faster and quicker than both of those WR’s.  His injuries are not a concern for me because injuries are part of the game and those injuries will not affect his overall talents.  Malcolm has the abilities to impact right a way for the team that drafts him and be the focal point of a teams passing game.       

 Antoine Cason CB/S - Antoine is the most underrated CB in this draft who can play more than one position and be the leader of you defensive backfield.  He has excellent leadership quailities to go along with his excellent playing skills.  Antoine will be the leader of your DB’s on your team because players respect the intelligent way he plays and the fact that for him winning is everything.            

 Ray Rice RB - IMO Ray is the second best RB in this draft.  He reminds me of Curtis Martin RB formerly of the Jets.  Because of Ray’s size he is being over looked but the truth is that Ray is a powerful built back with excellent football intelligence and can play in any offensive system.  Ray is a franchise RB and is a patient runner who understands how to set up his blocks and can cut and burst on a dime.  He is the real deal and to suggest because of his size that he is limited is being just as short sited as those scouts and GM’s who said the same thing about Curtis Martin when he was drafted as the 10^th pick in the third round of the 1995 draft by the New England Patriots.           

by Drew Boylhart 

My definition of a sleeper is a bit different than most everybody else’s.  My definition of a sleeper is a player on a team that is being over looked because everybody is too busy evaluating and promoting the star of that team.  He is hiding right in front of your eyes.  That being said here are just some of the obvious sleepers too me.  

Mike McGlynn OL Pittsburgh - Mike is being over looked because everybody is struck with the potential, size and athletic talent of Jeff Otah.  Mike might not have the pure LT talents that Jeff has but Mike’s versatility and talents reminds me a lot of Ross Verba OL Lions.   Mike has the ability to play tackle, guard or center.  He has excellent leadership qualities and mental stamina.   The team that drafts Mike will be drafting a player who should start and impact in one of those three positions the day after you draft him.  

Corey Lynch S Appalachian St  - Corey is being overlooked because everyone is looking at Dexter Jackson WR, who has excellent speed and quickness.  The truth is that Corey has the developmental talent to be one of the best safeties in this draft class.  His tackling skills and leadership skills along with solid athletic talent means that in a year or two he should be your starting Safety and a core player for the team that drafts him.  He is also an ace special teams player.         

Matt Flynn QB LSU - This one really baffles me.  Matt worked out at the combine and just had his Pro day, and still not a report that the kid exists in the football world.  All this kid did was bail his coach out everytime his coach decided to get fancy and replace him in the middle of a game that Matt was leading his team in.  He makes good decisions in the pocket and has a good arm and shows overall good athletisum to play his position.  Lets just say for the hell of it that I am totally wrong about Matt Flynn and he is not a very good QB for the next level.  Why haven’t we heard that opinion from somebody, anybody!  I mean I have had many people who disagree with me about a player’s talent for the next level.  The one thing I’ve never seen is a QB in a high profile college who leads his team to two championship games - not be discussed by anybody at all!  Matt Flynn is not a sleeper.  Matt Flynn is the definition of a player who is a coma patient of the NFL draft!  I mean really how do you not talk about this kid good or bad - at all?      

Marcus Monk WR Arkansas - As far as I can tell the new way to evaluate players for the draft is to consider injuries and not talent as a deciding factor for that player to be a future impact player at the next level.  Of course if that were true then there would be a lot of impact player’s who play right now in the NFL that would not have been drafted at all!  Before his knee injuries Marcus was considered to be one of the better WR’s in the country.  My point is that he did this while playing on a team that had Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.  So Marcus had two knee operations and all of a sudden he has no more talent!  Marcus comes back and play’s this year before he is all the way back from his knee operations and this means he has lost his talent!  We all know that players who have knee operations never come back from them - right!  You have got to be kidding me that Marcus is not being considered as a top WR in this draft.  If leg problems can drop a talented player to almost being out of a draft then why is everybody so high on Glen Dorsey?                                            

http://www.packerchatters.com/draft/draft_chat_transcripts/view.php?id=4259

by Drew Boylhart 

Jets Vs Patriots 

This year, we have one of the most interesting situations occurring in the 1^st round of this draft.  We have two rival teams drafting one right in front of the other in the first round with basically the same needs.  In the first round, the Jets will pick at the #6 position and the Patriots will pick at 7.   By now, I think everyone who follows football knows of the bad blood between these two coaches and why there is bad blood between them.  I even have my suspicions about the reason the Jets moved up in the first round last year being to make sure they could pick the player they wanted before the Patriots could make a deal to move up and draft that very same player.  Now, I have no real proof of this, but you have to admit — it does add to the intrigue and bad blood between these two teams!  Darrelle Revis (CB Pittsburgh) had to be on the working draft board of the Patriots last year.   The Jets moving up “out of the blue” to draft him before he could be picked by the Bangals may be the reason or, maybe the Jets got wind of a deal that might happen involving the Patriots and decided to pull the trigger, making the deal earlier than they wanted to!  The Jets are they only ones who know for sure and they’re not talking. 

So, let’s fast forward to this year.  The Jets run a 3-4 defense — the same as the Patriots do — and both teams need LB’s and CB’s.  The Jets also need a NT, but I would guess that player could be picked up later in free agency, in a trade or perhaps he is on the team right now.  The real first round targets for both teams would be LB’s and CB’s.   By now you all know about Chris Long (DE Virginia) and Vernon Gholston (DE Ohio St).  Both players have OLB skills, but Chris is more of a DE than an OLB.  Vernon really has the athleticism to play DE or OLB.  At least that’s my feelings about the players.  Chris has a good chance as of this writing to be picked as the first player in this draft.  So that leaves Vernon as the next big time possibility for both the Jets and the Patriots to have their eyes on.  Now, let’s just say that Vernon is not taken by the Rams or the Falcons and drops to the Raiders.  And, we can add to this scenario that the Raiders are interested in McFadden or an offensive lineman.  I am asking the fans of the Jets and Patriots:   what would you give up to make a deal with the Raiders to get a shot at drafting Vernon Gholston?  The Chiefs are in front of both of you and if the Raiders do not trade and take McFadden, then you must deal with the Chiefs!  You are on the clock.  Would you trade up or sit right where you are and evaluate trading down?   Remember Jets fans…the possibility of drafting a star player in a position of need is sitting right there in front of you.  But, you will have to trade up that one or two spots to pick him. 

The Patriot fans see a player of need that a team in their division is as hot for as they are.  If you move ahead of the Jets, it’s like hurting them twice because not only do you pick a player you both needed, but now the future of him impacting against the Jets twice a year plus the playoffs is just too much to pass up.   You’re both on the clock.  Do you deal with the Raiders or the Chiefs, what and who do you give up and when do you pull the trigger on a trade?  Being a GM on draft day is much more difficult than you thought, isn’t it?!

Actions or Words 

Matt Ryan (QB Boston College) just had his workout.  We all know that the Kansas City Chiefs sent the most representatives to the workout.  Personally, I think this surprised Herm Edwards and he realized that he might have shown his hand, so to speak.  It is obvious to me that coming out of a workout of a player who has the interest of all the teams in the NFL and only two teams send their GM’s and coaches sends a signal that those two teams have a serious interest in that player.  So tell me this, why would you bother to downgrade what you just saw?  Why would you give your fans the impression that you are about to draft a player at the 5^th pick of this draft who is equal to a player that was picked as the 18^th pick of the 1^st round of the 2000 draft?  If there is a team in front of you that is interested in drafting Matt, don’t you have another player that you would be happy to pick?  This cloak and dagger stuff is a joke!  It’s a joke because Herm Edwards has not done his homework or does not trust his scouts.  Herm is trying to evaluate players with a workout seen by him and is giving it more weight than this kid’s performance on the field and in a game.  If that statement were not the truth, then the whole Chiefs’ entourage would not have been there at the workout!  You should be able to see all that you need to see about Matt from his play on the field, a background check, his marks at Boston College along with interview at the combine.  What more could you have gotten from the workout?  Was arm strength the reason you needed all of the most important decision makers in your front office at Matt’s workout?  Then you come out and do interviews (that you did not have to do) and downplay what you just saw!  What part of this makes any sense to anyone out there? 

It has been reported that Miami has an interest in drafting Matt Ryan along with some other players and have contacted the agents of those players.  Miami sent one person to Matt Ryan’s workout.  Why, you ask?  Because they know all they need to know about Matt Ryan and Bill Parcells did not even go to the combine!  Bill Parcells knows that what he can learn at a workout is nothing more than whether or not the player is in good health.  Bill Parcells does not need to sit down with Matt before the workout to get him to relax or get to know him better.  Parcells does not want to be the kid’s friend or need to have a great relationship with Matt.  Parcells knows that this kid just has to have the necessary talent and maturity to handle the pressure on and off the field at the next level.  A workout in your underwear does not show that! 

As long as Herm Edwards and other coaches feel that they need to interact with a draft pick personally beyond an interview at the combine, these organizations will continue to make big mistakes drafting players for the NFL.  If you can’t tell a kid’s character and maturity level by his play on the field and how he conducts himself by going to classes and getting good marks, then I’m not sure what to say.    If your scouts do not have the information for you to evaluate a player, then I suggest you give them a profile form that addresses those issues so that you are all on the same page.  If you think looking a kid in the eye means you can tell if that kid is good or bad — regardless of their actions on and off the field — then you are sadly mistaken.  Just because a kid does or does not say “Yes, sir” in an interview after you ask him a question has absolutely no bearing on the level of character and maturity that kid has.   Always remember that actions speak louder than words!  Matt’s actions on and off the field speak franchise QB to me and I don’t need a good or bad workout in his shorts to prove to me otherwise.

By  Fred Jones

Mid-March and Draft anticipation builds.  Free agent re-alignment is settling down after an initial purchasing fervor.  Mock drafts are sprouting up like Spring weeds.  And pro days are underway for those prospects who have been mis-guided by mis-guided agents. 

During this relative lull in public football activity, I have an opportunity to make some observations about the Draft.  The first idea that leaped into my mind is “When is a mock draft not a mock draft?”  From my viewpoint, a mock draft begins with a determination of needs by each team at each position.  Combine this with the rankings of the prospects eligible for the draft and match the need with the optimal prospect, after considering the impact of free agent acquisitions.  How one evaluates need and fulfills the need to make the team better is the essence of a mock draft.  Everyone who publishes a mock draft considers team needs in a priority scheme and considers the available personnel options while attempting to determine what the teams selecting before you will do.

Reporters and sportscasters who gain inside information on who a team heavily considers selecting on the day before the Draft and publish their considered insights as to which teams will take which prospects are not publishing a mock draft.  They are reporting what they have found out by gaining inside information.  Mock drafts are fun because anyone who can think logically and gathers information from public sources about teams and their construct can develop a mock draft.  The discussion that ensues about why one believes who your favorite team will take is the fun of mock drafts.  Mock drafts change over time because considerations change in the period leading up to the Draft. 

Another aspect of the Draft that I’ve been musing on is the worth of prospects selected in the top ten.  THR subscribers have read the series of interviews I did with Draft Statistics.  In those interviews, we revealed that the value received for the payment made for prospects in the top ten is poor.  Why then, do teams continue to throw money at the top ten prospects when the return on their investment is greater with prospects selected later?  Is it the hope that this one prospect will be enough to fill all the stadium seats and lead to a Super Bowl appearance?   Guaranteed payment for unguaranteed future services is not a financially sound practice.

So does trading up into the top ten make sense?  I say it never makes sense.  Is one prospect worth two or three prospects?  Unless you can get an iron-clad guarantee that the top ten prospect you select will get you to the Super Bowl, it’s a losing proposition.   When Mike Ditka traded all of the Saints draft choices in the 1999 Draft plus the first and third choices in the 2000 Draft for the “opportunity” to select running back Ricky Williams, it was the nadir in draft day trades and demonstrated the foolishness of trading up for a sure thing.

And my final thought should stir some discussion: There should be a free agent draft.  If the NFL believes that drafting in order of wins and losses to ensure equitable opportunity for all teams to have a chance at the Super Bowl, free agent movement should be managed just like the collegiate draft.  Is there any rationale that says the two groups should be handled differently?  Just because a player has NFL experience should not be the argument to preclude a free agent draft.  But, you say, the free agent has earned the right to negotiate with any team for his services.  If that’s your argument, why does it not extend to collegiate players?  Collegiate players and free agents are not under contract to any team.  Then why allocate players under different schemes if equitable distribution of talent is the objective of the NFL?