Random Thoughts: Post Draft - AFC Teams

by Drew Boylhart

Bengals - Good draft by the Bengals except once again they cannot resist drafting a player who has a history of character issues in Jason Shirley (DT Fresno St).  Now we all see why Chad Johnson has a problem with staying and playing?  Marvin continues to talk out of his mouth and butt cheeks at the very same time!  Taking Jerome Simpson (WR Coastal Carolina) when others from bigger programs were on the board is a mistake also.  Remember, it’s all about LTI.  I’m sure Jerome has the talent, but how long will it take for him to become a consistent threat on the field?

Bills - Another example of a team that got so excited after they made the first two picks, they lost their way the rest of the draft.   This is the same thing that happened to the Rams last year and you saw the repercussions of that in where the Rams drafted this year.  Two great picks do not make a draft.  There were too many players from big programs to pick from to make talent from small schools or weak division schools priority draft picks.   The way the Bills drafted on the second day, you would think they were a playoff team.  They did hit a home run with Leodis McKelvin (CB Troy) and James Hardy (WR Indiana) and for most draft “experts,” that’s all that matters…but not for me.  They blew the 2^nd day. 

Broncos - They got good talent, but I’m not sure most of the picks fit the defensive and offensive systems except for Peyton Hillis (RB Arkansas).  I think in a zone blocking offensive line system, this kid is going to be a big time RB.  Peyton and Ryan Clady (OT Boise St) might make people think this draft was an excellent draft (in the future)!

Browns - This is an example of a team that selected quality players with having only a few picks.  Drafting Beau Bell (LB UNLV) in the 4^th round of this draft just gave the Browns the future leader of their defense for years to come.  Ahtyba Rubin (DT Iowa St) should be an excellent player in that system as well.

Chargers - I told you that Antoine Cason (CB Arizona) had first round talent.  For all of you out there that think that I don’t evaluate talent, I guess you have to say the same about AJ Smith because AJ, along with me, believes that Antoine has 1^st round talent or he would not have drafted him in the 1^st round!   I like the Jacob Hester (FB LSU) pick also.  The rest of the draft doesn’t send shivers down my spine, but you have to ask yourself:  How many years have the Chargers (in spite of Philip Rivers) been in the playoff hunt? 

Chiefs - It’s hard to say that the Chiefs did not do well in this draft.  So I’m not going to be the first - in spite of the overall talent grade.  The reason is they did what they had to do to improve that football team.  My fear is that Glenn Dorsey (DT LSU) will be on the injured reserved list more than he will be on the 53- man roster.  But that’s my problem.   The Chiefs did the best they could with the head coach they have running the franchise. 

Colts - If they are having problems with a center then they draft a center.  If they need a LB, they draft an LB.  How do you argue with a team that goes to the draft and drafts good, solid players that fit their needs?!  I think Jacob Tamme (TE Kentucky), if picked by most any other team in the NFL, would not make the roster.  But in the Colts system with the QB they have, the kid should become a core player because he fits what they are trying to accomplish.  It takes more than talent to play in the NFL.  You look at this draft and you can see how true that is.  I cut my teeth on Bill Polian draft picks…this guy knows how to draft for this system both offensively and defensively.   

Dolphins - How in the hell do you draft your future starting LT Jake Long (Michigan) and QB Chad Henne (Michigan) in the same draft and it not be a mistake?  Then, you draft two guards who have excellent potential to start for you at some point in the first year.  For a resounding finish, you get some defensive linemen that, at worse, should wind up being solid rotation D-lineman.  This was a hell of a draft for the Dolphins.  Henne will start and beat out Beck for the starting QB position.  Oh - by  the way, I like Beck, but Henne is one pissed QB because he feels he should have been picked a lot earlier than he was and he is right! 

Jaguars - Yes, they did move up high in the draft, but they got the player they wanted — Derrick Harvey (DE Florida) — and for that, you have to give them credit.  Then they added to the pass rush and drafted Quentin Groves (LB Auburn).  You plan your work and then work your plan, which is exactly what the Jaguars did.  The Thomas Williams (LB USC) and Trae Williams (CB South Florida) picks were solid choices for players that should help right away.   This was a good draft!

Jets - This is another example of a team losing focus after their first two picks of the draft.  But somebody tell me really - did Mike and Eric go home after the first two picks?  Dwight Lowery (CB San Jose St) has never been the same player since he broke his jaw and no other CB’s?!  I like the Eric Ainge (QB Tennessee) selection; he has good developmental potential to be a starter and moxie enough to get through a few games if he is thrown into them early because of injuries to other QB’s in the first year.   

Patriots - Sometimes you too smart for your own good.  The Patriots move back in the top ten and miss out on Keith Rivers (LB USC).  However, they pick Jerod Mayo (LB Tennessee), so they were able to recover.  Then, you have the pick of Shawn Crable (LB Michigan) and don’t pick Beau Bell (LB UNLV).  I guess they didn’t pick Beau because Bill must think the New England winters will be too harsh for Beau to handle!  Matt Slater (WR/ST UCLA) should spice up the special teams and Bo Rudd (LB Nebraska) will fit the defense very well, but I do think you blew it on Beau Bell.  The leadership skills on this team are getting old along with your defensive talent and Bell would have been the answer.   

Raiders - Tell me this, what did the Raiders gain by drafting Darren McFadden (RB Arkansas)?  If Al had called me, I would have asked him the following question.  Business value and talent wise, what do you gain by drafting Darren McFadden and passing on Vernon Gholston (DE Ohio St)?   After the draft was over, I didn’t see that much difference in the talent of the RB position on your team.  The Raiders had excellent RB’s on the roster before you drafted Darren and no pass rush.  Even after you drafted Darren, you have excellent talent at the RB position, but you still HAVE NO PASS RUSH!!       

Ravens - I just don’t get it and I guess I never will.  After all, it’s not like I really know what the hell I’m talking about!  It’s not like I have run businesses for a living and understand economics and realize that putting my $800 million dollar business in the hands of a 23 year old QB who has never played successfully more than one year at a Division II school is a risky proposition.  Even though Joe Flacco (QB Delaware) was blessed with a golden arm, he still could not beat out Tyler Palko as QB of a Division I program.   I don’t care if Joe Flacco becomes the greatest QB to ever play the game of football.  The information that you have in front of you at the time you drafted this kid does not come close to suggesting that this kid can be anything more than a solid QB in about four or five years from now.  Moving up to pick Joe in the first round and demanding that he become something that most likely is not going to be attainable, is without a doubt, one of the worst things you could have done to this kid.  Ozzie should be ashamed of himself.  The NFL is big business and if Ozzie can’t get that through his head, then he needs to get another job.  Yes, you still develop players from the draft, but fans of the NFL should not have to pay full price to wait for your prize draft pick in the first round to develop anymore.  I feel bad for Joe Flacco.  He does have talent and he looks like he is a great kid.  My problem is with Ozzie and whoever else approved drafting a one year wonder from a Division II School just because he has a great arm.  This is not the 1960’s.  There is way too much money being paid out by the fans and sponsors to risk this pick.  Maybe the people running teams get paid too much money because they don’t seem to understand how expensive it is for the average fan to purchase season tickets!  But let me try to explain something to you:  your salary is being paid mostly by people who do not earn even close to what you earn in a year.  Owning an NFL team is no longer a hobby.  You do not have the luxury anymore to pick a player in the first round in the hope that in six or seven years, he turns the franchise around.   I can say this, you got a hell of a player in Ray Rice (RB Rutgers) and if Willis McGahee ever gets injured, he will not get back on to the field.   Maybe Ray Rice and Troy Smith will save Ozzie’s ass because if I were a Ravens season ticket holder, I would be one pissed person right now.  Ozzie, do yourself a favor.  Next time you think that it is all right to put a $ 800 million dollar franchise in the hands of a 23 year QB from a Division II school after he has one year of success after transferring from a Division I school where he couldn’t beat out a QB that was not even drafted, call me.  I’ll help you make the decision.

Steelers - The Draft just came to this team on a platter and I’m sure they were as surprised about it as anyone else.  Rashard Mendenhall (RB Illinois) according to everybody but me, fell to them at #23.  He fits their offensive scheme and with Willie Parker, this running game will become the power of the team once again.  Drafting Limas Sweed (WR Texas) gives them a good player who should help Ben in the passing came if he can stay off the injured list.  The pick of Denis Dixon (QB Oregon) is just perfect.  You all know by know that I think Denis is going to be a hell of a QB, particularly now that he can develop at his own pace.  If big Ben gets injured, this kid will be able to run the team very effectively.  Good talent, good draft.  See what happens when you don’t panic!    

Texans - This is another team that needs to pick up the phone and call me.  Duane Brown (OT Virginia Tech) has talent, but he was not a consistent offensive lineman at the college level.  If the coaching staff of the Texans is thinking about starting this kid at the LT position, then you just got your QB put on the injured reserve list.  In fact, if you are thinking about starting this kid at all, you better give your QB a bike.  Can Duane become a good LT sometime in the future?  The answer to that is yes!  But to pick him in the first round and put that kind of pressure on him when he could not handle being consistent at the college level is a big mistake.  This draft was a big disappointment.   

Titans - The Titans got very good talent and added speed to their team.  This was a good draft and if Vince Young can take more of a back seat and let others do the job, the Titans just might be one of the surprise teams of the NFL this year.  Jason Jones (DE Eastern Michigan) could be the Justin Tuck of this draft.  Chris Johnson (RB East Carolina) is fast and given some time to develop, just might become a Brian Westbrook style of RB.  Until he does develop, he will impact on third downs and special teams.  He has the type of speed and quickness that scares the crap out of defensive coordinators and they will have problems game planning for this kid.  I was surprised the Cowboys did not draft him at #22 instead of Felix Jones.  This was a good draft for the Titans.

Random Thoughts:Post Draft - NFC Teams

by Drew Boylhart

49ers - This was a weird draft for the 49ers.  It was almost like they weren’t in it at all.  They got good talent in the first three rounds, but after that, I think they just said the hell with it and packed up and went home.  Kentwan Balmer (DL North Carolina) has solid talent and fits their system.  Chilo Rachal (OL USC) also has strong abilities/potential and Reggie Smith (CB Oklahoma) should be a good solid player as well…unfortunately, after that, they seemed to lose their way. 

Bears - How do you not look for a QB in this draft?  You cannot tell me that picking up a QB in the rookie free agency pool will be better than drafting a QB.  I love the overall talent the Bears got in their draft, but not drafting a QB was a big mistake.  You passed on Josh Johnson (QB San Diego St) and Matt Flynn (QB LSU)!  You had a hell of a draft, but not drafting a QB and thinking you will be able to pick one up in free agency could be a big mistake.   

Buccaneers - Sometimes collecting talent is a good thing and sometimes it is not.   This is a team that usually lacks direction on draft day, but I have to say that this year they got the most talented overall group of players in this draft.  I’m not sure how any of them fit the system the Buccaneers use, but they do have talent. 

Cardinals - This is another team that did very well picking talented players.   Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (CB Tennessee St) is a hell of a talent.  Early Doucet (WR LSU) is that sneaky type of receiver in the mold of an Isaac Bruce who just beats you like a drum and you don’t know how or why, but at the end of the game, you wish he hadn’t.   

Cowboys - Jerry Jones has become a person who understands how to run a draft.  As they say, he plans his work and works his plan.  He is no longer panicking when a player he wants goes off the board.  He wanted Felix Jones (RB Texas) and he got him.   He wanted a corner and he went out and got Mike Jenkins (CB South Florida).  He needed a back up of both picks with players who will push both the rookies and the veterans, so he selected Tashard Choice (RB Georgia Tech) and Orlando Scandrick (CB Boise St).  A very smart draft and the 4^th he gave up for Pacman seems logical even if you do not agree with Pacman being a Cowboy. 

Eagles - They didn’t pick until the second round and they land Trevor Laws (DL Notre Dame) who will improve the Defensive line the day he steps on the field.   DeJuan Jackson (WR California) is also a good pick in the 2^nd round and Mike McGlynn (OL Pittsburgh) will help change the mental strength of this team in the most positive way. 

Falcons - The Falcons got the QB of the future in Matt Ryan (Boston College) and added a ton of speed to this team.  Harry Douglas (WR/ST Louisville) will open up the slot and become a favorite target for Matt Ryan.  Thomas Brown (RB Georgia) will help big time when Mike Turner gets hurt.  Chevis Jackson (DB LSU) and Curtis Lofton (LB Oklahoma) will add leadership and toughness to the defense.  The big mistake is Sam Baker (OL USC) — he might make it as a guard, but the jury will be out until he does. 

 Giants - Like I told one of the members, this is the type of draft that, the more you look at it, the more it grows on you.  Kenny Philips (S Miami) is a solid, but not impacting, safety.  Terrell Thomas (CB USC) is another smart, solid CB who fits the system very well.  Bryan Kehl (LB BYU) is an excellent fit along with Jonathan Goff (LB Vanderbilt).  Not thrilled about Mario Manningham (WR Michigan) but maybe I’m wrong — maybe he will play on every down and run every route out and block for his teammates.  I mean look at the person he has to learn from…Plexico Burris!   Plexico doesn’t practice, run routes out or block for teammates and plays when he feels like it.  And the Giants still won the Super Bowl!  So, I guess when Plexico’s contract is up the Giants will have a replacement. 

 Lions - The Lions got solid talent.  Gosder Cherilus (OT Boston College) is a good player.  Jerome Felton (FB Furman) could develop into an excellent red zone back and Caleb Campbell (S Army) will surprise the Lion fans with his athletic ability; he should become a fan favorite and a core player on defense.  Jordon Dizon (LB Colorado) is a very good overachieving LB and Kevin Smith (RB Central Florida) is a power running back that, if the line blocks well for him, could surprise a lot of people with his ability to gain yardage.  

Packers - This was an excellent draft for the Packers; they got smart players and they believe in the THR system.  The last few years, the Packers have been one of the better drafting teams and have scored very well on our boards.  They are definitely one of the teams in the NFL that think about the draft the way that we here at THR do.  They drafted two QB’s — Brian Brohm (QB Louisville) and Matt Flynn (QB LSU).   Now, some will suggest that they are not sure about Aaron Rodgers so they drafted two QB’s.  I don’t believe that for one minute.  One QB is to develop and use as a back up and the other QB will be developed and used in the future to gain more picks in future drafts.  Both QB’s fit the style of offensive system the Packers use.  That is smart drafting.  Add to this Jordy Nelson (WR Kansas ST) who is a WCO dream come true for a QB, Jeremy Thompson (DE Wake Forest) — a smart DE who will develop into one of the better players from this draft — and Breno Giacomini (OT  Louisville) who, if he matures, might wind up being a Pro Bowl offensive tackle.  This is how a playoff team drafts and stays a playoff team.  You draft players with a little longer LTI, but the players have excellent talent and the veterans can see the talent right away and know they have to continue to improve if they want to keep their jobs.  LTI is different for every team.   Playoff teams should look for very talented players who have a longer LTI and teams that are not in the playoffs should look for players with a very quick LTI even if they have less talent than other players.     

 Panthers - Another team who made a plan and then worked that plan.  They drafted Jonathan Stewart (RB Oregon), then made a push for Jeff Otah (OT Pittsburgh).  I’m not a big fan of Jeff Otah, but if a team wants a player and goes and gets that player then that is all that matters.   Charles Godfrey (CB Iowa) has good talent and Dan Connor (LB Penn St) is a hell of a player.  They got the players that fit their needs. 

Rams - The Rams got one of the best players in the draft, but then they followed it up by doing one of the wackiest things I have ever seen happen in a draft.  They left starting WR after starting WR on the board to pick a Special Teams player who plays the Wide Receiver position.  These guys are still confused when it comes to working the draft.  They have no plan…or the plan they have sucks.  Call me you need help.  If it wasn’t for the Chris Long pick, I’m not sure what you would have walked away with from this draft.  I told you last year that you mailed in the 2^nd day of your draft and that it would come back to haunt you.  I’m telling you again this year that you better hope you don’t have very many injuries.  Call me the number is 1 -8DR-AFT-HELP!

Redskins - They worked the THR formula the best I have seen.  They got good talent that fits the new system they will use on offense and all the players have a short LTI with the possible exception of Devin Thomas (WR Michigan St).  The thing about Devin is that, in a WCO, he fits like a glove.  The WR position that runs all those underneath routes will be what he was made for.  This will also shorten his LTI.  He will not be expected to learn or run all the routes of a normal offense.  Malcolm Kelly (WR Oklahoma) could be the offensive rookie of the year before it is all said and done.   When you use the THR method of drafting, you shall be rewarded and the Redskins offensive turn around will be a lot quicker than you think.  Colt Brennan (QB Hawaii) is a good fit also as a back-up WCO QB.  He is smart and if he is done with all of his issues, he should be able to help in the future.  

Saints - The Saints got excellent talent and filled some big needs.  This is another team that worked their plan and did it well.  Sedrick Ellis (DT USC) was the best DT in this draft.   DeMario Presley (DT NC St) is a perfect complement to Sedrick —  I’m calling them Fire and Lightning.  Carl Nicks (OT Nebraska) if he gets serious, will be a solid offensive tackle and Adrian Arrington (WR Michigan) has big time potential written all over him if he can just mature and get focused about playing football.   

Seahawks - The Seahawks got the best all around TE in this draft and let me tell you, the Buffalo Bills are pissed — they wanted this kid in a bad way.  John Carlson (TE Notre Dame) is very underrated and should be able to impact his first year.  Then they drafted Owen Schmitt (FB West Virginia) and Justin Forsett (RB California).  These are two players that will turn this team into a red zone nightmare.  Schmitt will bring back the days of former FB Tom Rathman during the early days of the WCO when the most important position was the FB!   Watch out for the Seahawks next year. 

Vikings - They got excellent talent and one of the better QB’s in this draft.  He is a perfect fit for what they are doing in Viking land.  John David Booty (QB USC) is a perfect fit and if Travarous Jackson gets hurt this year, he will not get back on the field.  Booty with Adrian Peterson and that new defense will go right to the playoffs.