DRAFT MUSINGS

By Fred Jones

VALUE - A curious characteristic

Watch ESPN and listen to their experts describe value as it pertains to NFL draft prospects.  Not to be outdone, the experts on the NFL Network explain their definition of the value of a prospect.  Football editorials by gurus have addressed this concept time and again.  Many maintain that we must wait for a “couple of years” before we evaluate a player.  We’ve addressed it here at The Huddle Report.  Robby ranks the prospects on his Value Board.  We have also introduced the concept of length-to-impact (LTI) that has its basis on value.  So the concept of a prospect’s value has been pretty much clarified for us.  WRONG!

Value is the regard that something is held to deserve is an accepted definition of the term.  It is also defined as the material or monetary worth of something.  And it is also defined as the usefulness of something considered in respect of a particular purpose.  That said, we can apply any and all of these definitions to the value of an NFL prospect considered in the Draft.

First, we don’t have to wait a number of years or games to determine the value of a player.  From the common theme of the above definitions, value is in the eye of the beholder at the time the beholder selects a player.  Why is this definition valid?  It’s valid because the team selects that prospect above all others that are available at that time and intends to compensate that player on a monetary scale that certainly displays the value of the prospect to that team.  So the value of a prospect is determined by where he is selected in the Draft…period.

O.K., you say.  But what if that prospect does not perform and is traded or cut early in his career?  The answer is simple: his value has changed.  Value has a time aspect to it.  It’s just like the Enron stock you bought back in the early 90s.  It had a high monetary value.  Now it’s worthless.  Time changes value.  In financial terms, present value and future value are finite but different worthiness claims.  It’s the same for NFL prospects before the Draft, during the Draft and after the Draft.

Why did I harp on this topic for four paragraphs?  I did so because I want you to understand that the value of a player at draft time should be considered in the context of the Draft.  It gives the Draft importance.  Remember, there are a couple of hundred million dollars being committed to 256 prospects.  Did Jake Long sign a contract to play for the Dolphins without compensation?  Both the Dolphins and Jake Long saw value in their business association.  I say that’s the definition of value in my Funk & Wagnalls.

Random Thoughts: Rumors vs Facts

 by Drew Boylhart

 Vernon Gholston takes downs off - This has to be one of the most ridicules rumors started by a “Scout” that I have ever heard.  When there is a report that starts with “some scouts are saying” that means it’s a planted story.  It might have some half truths to entice you into thinking it has some meaning but the true meaning of the leak is to manipulate the person reporting the story.  Vernon this year had 15 tackles for losses and 14 sacks.  That is a total of 29 plays behind the line of scrimmage.  A blind scout touching the TV screen could feel the intensity of this kids play on the field!  I think the people repeating this rumor are eating way too much road kill!               

 Chris Long is a tweener - Again one of the most ridicules reports to come to my ears in years.  Chris Long is a strong side DE in a 4/3 defense and will be a good one.  A tweener does not have a true position.  Again a report started by a “scout” to manipulate the announcer who is reporting it.      

 Jonathan Stewart is rising on team’s draft boards - Jonathan never dropped.  His surgery was recommended by all the teams interested in drafting him after he ran a 4.45 sp at the combine.  He has always been rated as a top fifteen pick in the draft.      

 Jake Long might not be a true LT - Why would this be considered a reason not to draft Jake in the top five or as the first pick in the draft?   I think being able to use Jake as a LT, RT or LG is a positive not a negative.  In most systems he will be an excellent LT.  In a spread offense he will struggle as a LT.  I don’t see a spread offense until the Patriots pick in this draft and I bet if he drops to them they would lay a big fat kiss on the lips of Eric Mangini and draft him.           

 Matt Ryan is not a franchise QB - At least everybody reporting on the draft has been consistent with this false rumor.   The truth is that if Matt were not a franchise QB then teams in the top ten like Miami, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens would not be interested in him.  Not one of those teams has officially ruled out drafting Matt!  QB’s are rated on need and then talent.  Boston College would not have taken a sniff of a bowl game if it weren’t for Matt Ryan.     

 Darren McFadden is not that good a RB - He is long legged and long legged RB’s do not run that same way that regular sized RB’s run.  They do not run through tackles.  They run by them.  They make their cuts a yard earlier than a regular RB because their long stride takes them into a tackler faster so they cut early and go bye the tackler with a powerful stride and speed.  Darren McFadden reminds me of what I remember of Gayle Sayers and OJ Simpson.  That is the style of back that he is and that is his potential.  He is not the same style of runner that Adrian Peterson is.  I just wish the “experts” on TV would stop trying to compare the two players.  These two players have completely different styles of running.  Right now there is no back in the NFL that runs with the same style that Darren runs with. 

Random Thoughts: Most Overrated Players in 2008 NFL Draft

Joe (Fiasco) Flacco QB Delaware – I’m not sure why this kid is being touted as a high draft choice but it has gotten to the point were I’m wondering why he is not being considered to be a top ten pick in this draft the way everyone is talking about him.  I think the best way to get my point across is to quote an e-mail that was sent to me recently by one of our members. 

“You’re the only guy I can vent to about all this Joe Flacco hype. I’m glad the draft is 3 weeks away because I can’t take much more of this. I mean, doesn’t something have to be said for the kid who actually goes to a big-time program (any program for that matter) and COMPETES for a spot on the roster? The guy completely chickens-out at Pitt and decides to go to Delaware! Delaware man!! Then he shows up at the Senior Bowl and completely sucks. The coaches had to give him the Ol’ Mercy pull out of the game just to keep his stock from dropping like Colt Brennan’s. Then he comes to the Combine where there is no defense in front of him and throws some pretty spirals. Now Kiper and Mayock have this joker rated as the #2 QB in the draft. Can you believe that? I think they should have their credentials stripped immediately and be made to scout women’s college track and field for a minimum of 10 years. Ridiculous. I seem to get laughed at a lot when I say that I’d draft Matt Flynn before Joe Flacco but I’ve got a feeling that you’ll agree with me.”

I could not have said it better myself.  As I say “It takes more than talent to play in the NFL”.  Someday Scouts, GM’s, and Coaches are going to realize that.  We know the fans do!         

Glen Dorsey DT LSU – If you think that Glen is going to be the impact player in the NFL the way he was in college then all I have to say to you is ask these players who were picked in the 2003 draft – Dwayne Robertson DT #4, Jonathan Sullivan DT # 6, Jimmy Kennedy DT # 12, Ty Warren DT #13, William Joseph DT # 25.  Except for Ty Warren all of these players have struggled to come close to their college performance.  The reason is very simple, on the field work ethic!       

Devin Thomas WR Michigan St – I’m not going to suggest that Devin is going to be a complete bust because the kid has talent.  I am suggesting that if he is taken too high in the draft and force him on to the field to produce right away like a #1 WR then there will be problems.  Devin has a lot to learn about how to run routes.  I mean a lot to learn.  His impact route at the college level was an underneath crossing route against LB’s.  That is not enough at the NFL.  There is a reason he did not run the rest of the tree route.  He has trouble going over the middle and it will take him some time to conquer that problem.  Not to mention – learn to run the other routes and get separation.  It takes more than speed to be a good WR in the NFL.     

Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh – Jeff does not like the LT position.  He likes the money but not the responsibility of playing that position.  He has the talent but he is not consistent and falls into very bad habits doing the game.  Jeff can be a good LT or RT but he will not be a consistent offensive lineman to be a LT.  If you draft him and think that he will learn to be more responsible and consistent then you are in for a big surprise.  If Jeff is taken too high in this draft and forced to play LT he will struggle big time until you put him over on the right side and even then his lack of consistency will rear its ugly head at the worst of times.   

Brian Brohm QB Louisville – Brian struggles with pressure at the college level.  He has good skills but he goes to pieces against a hard pass rush at the college level.  He did improve this year but only enough to be productive and not enough to win.  I’m not sure if Brian will improve much beyond the level his is right now and that means he should not be taken in the first three rounds of this draft so that he can mature slowly.  Brian has AJ Feeley disease.  That means as long as he is a back up he looks like he could be a pretty good starter.  But as soon as you count on him to be your starter his negatives outweigh the positives.   

These are just some of the overrated players in this draft.  If you go to Rob’s value board and look at the TBR column you will see the possibility for a whole lot more.  Some owners are starting to use us to keep track of what is being said about players to keep a scorecard on their Draft Management teams.  All I can say to that is – it’s about time.  I pity the draft management team that drafts Joe (Fiasco) Flacco on the first day of this draft with the suggestion that this kid is going to come close to starting in the NFL.  I can see it know.  Joe will start, throw a touch down pass and throw for over two hundred yards but will also throw two interceptions and fumble the ball and the coaches will blame it all on the rest of the team. It will be the WR ran the wrong route or the LT did not do his job or on and on and on when the truth is that Joe is not mentally capable of handling a NFL pass rush and making decisions.  I suspect that Joe will go through two head coaches and four offensive coordinators before somebody will have the guts to hold Joe responsible and then it will be too late.

Drew’s Talent Top Ten

by Drew Boylhart

If you are a THR member then you know by know that my personal top ten have nothing to do with who will actually be drafted in the top ten.  Rob’s value board will give you that information.  The first year I did this I listed Nick Mangold OC Jets - in my top ten and believe me the reaction to naming a center, as one of the top ten players in a draft was unbelievable.  But I guess the Jets felt the same way about his talent as I did because they drafted him in the first round.  I don’t go out of my way just to shock people and list players that have no chance of being picked in the top ten of this draft.  The list consist of who I feel will have the greatest impact based on what I see on film.

Random Thoughts: Sleepers

by Drew Boylhart 

My definition of a sleeper is a bit different than most everybody else’s.  My definition of a sleeper is a player on a team that is being over looked because everybody is too busy evaluating and promoting the star of that team.  He is hiding right in front of your eyes.  That being said here are just some of the obvious sleepers too me.  

Drew Boylhart Draft Chat at Packer Chaters

http://www.packerchatters.com/draft/draft_chat_transcripts/view.php?id=4259