Random Thoughts: The 1st pick of the NFL Draft
Posted by thehuddlereport.com on March 14, 2008
by Drew Boylhart
Right now we have the Dolphins picking first. They can choose any player they want without worrying that someone else might pick that player ahead of them. They can pick from a number of players that other teams are interested in selecting themselves without any concerns. So tell me, why all the cloak and dagger crap? Why, because they think they might be able to trade that pick if they leak that they are interested in a certain player? I say, why leak! If you are interested in trading that pick, it would seem to me that letting everyone know what players you are interested in will speed up the process much more than leaks will. Let’s face it: there are only two players in this draft being discussed as ones for which any team is willing to trade up. Those two players are Matt Ryan (QB - Boston College) and Darren McFadden (RB - Arkansas). All the other players have doubles to them. By that I mean that if you miss out on picking Chris Long, you can pick Vernon Gholston. If you miss out on selecting Jack Long, you can choose Ryan Clady and if you miss out on Glen Dorsey, then you have Sedrick Ellis. In fact, even if you miss on Darren McFadden, you still have Rashard Mendenhall. So, the truth is that Matt Ryan is the only player that, if a team felt they had to have him, would be considered as trade up material. McFadden is in the mix for one reason only — Jerry Jones opened up his big mouth!
So, let’s get back to the Dolphins and this cloak and dagger business going on about the first pick in the draft. By now I would guess that the Dolphins have a list of four or five players they would consider as the first pick of this draft. If I were running the Dolphins war room, I would start negotiating with all four or five picks on a contract now. You have the power now to control the agents; once you make the pick, the power reverts to the agent and player. The Dolphins’ best deal can be negotiated starting now and by using one agent’s ego against the other. You will find at least one of those agents ready to make a deal because they want to be the agent that has the 1st pick in the draft for future referral business to their firm. After I have a deal in place with all of the four or five picks (and remember, the deal does not have to be the same for each player — just in place), now I can start to suggest that this slot is now for sale to the highest bidder because the teams that may be interested in one of those four or five players are going to get really nervous. You all know by now that I do not think the top ten players in any draft are worth the money being invested, so for me, moving out of the top ten is not a problem. I think a team that is in need of players and has the first pick of any draft should do whatever they can to get out of that position and trade for as many players they can get in the first three rounds to re-stock their team. In fact, that first pick of the second round is a very valuable pick also and I would be very willing to trade that pick; however, it must be for draft picks in this draft and not for future draft picks. The reason for that is that your job as a GM and coach depends on you turning a team around as fast as you can. Why collect draft choices in future drafts when you, as a coach or GM, may not be around? So Dolphins, get smart! Your time to affect the first pick in this draft is now, either by trading it or negotiating a contract that will be the groundwork for all other salaries in this draft.
March 14, 2008 at 7:53 am
No one is going to want to trade up for Ryan, he will drop, he is the most overrated player in this draft…He tries to act Like Farve by throwing into double coverage constantly, but he has too weak of an arm to get away with it….His decision making is poor…And I have watch film, I am not making this up…..
March 14, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Robert,
The whole point is for the Dolphins too make sure Matt Ryan doesn’t drop! You may be correct about Matt Ryan. My point is that the team that disagrees with you and feels that Ryan is the QB they need and must have – right now are not thinking about moving up to draft him because everybody in this draft is thinking the same way you are. They feel right now that the Dolphins are not that interested in drafting Matt and that he will drop. My point is that if Miami wants to really trade out of the first pick in this draft then they have to change the perception that they are not that interested in draft Matt Ryan as the possible first pick in this draft. The only way to do that is to do what I suggested and that is to start the process now so it seems that they ARE really interested in Ryan when the very well may not be. It’s not about if you agree that Ryan is a good QB or not a good QB it is about making other teams in this draft think he is a viable option as the first pick in this draft so that you have some leverage to trade the pick.
Drew
March 14, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Drew,
I understand Drew, and I agree…I am a Dolphin fan and personally want them to take Gholston with the #1 pick. But you bring up some good points…I just don’t want them to take Ryan…
thanks
March 14, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Robert,
I can understand that. This first pick 4 years from now will make or break the Dolphins. If the player Parcells picks is a bust then he will be shown the door and your rebuilding will be put on hold. Tom Donahue - when he was with the Bills drafted some very good players but it did not matter. When Mike Williams OT Texas was a bust then Donahue was shown the door and the Bills are still trying to recover. For the Dolphins this is one of the most important picks and it will not matter what Parcells does in free agency to improve the club. If you are a new GM or Head Coach and you are drafting for the first time in the top ten of a draft your first pick and its success is the corner stone of your personal success. The Falcons had better be right about their draft pick also. You see what is happening to Mike Nolan HC 49er’s. If Alex doesn’t turn it on this year old Mike will be shown the door. If Eli Manning had not had the year that he had then that HC would have been fired also. Instead Eli catches fire and Tom gets a new contract.
March 15, 2008 at 12:09 am
Drew,
As always you make a couple great points, but there may be no single trade in this draft, given the lack of a real stand alone number one guy. For that reason, the most useful fallback strategy may be to negotiate with the leaders first, as you suggest, and then select the best value, not the best prospect. The fourth player in the draft may cost nearly a third less than the top player. I wonder which of the top seven players in the draft might sign for guaranteed fourth money before the draft?
But, then, if the 4th pick afforability is the goal, why couldn’t a team ask for far less than the customary king’s ransom on our handy “trade value chart” and successively trade down the draft. Trading down with Atlanta would net the third pick and a small bonus (like an unhappy corner) or next years top pick or second. From third you trade again for additional pick and maybe a more affordable 4th or 5th pick. Or if McFadden is still there, perhaps trade for two or three Dallas picks.
Either way, falling out of the top picks might be the best thing for the cap. And if the Fins netted another couple starters from extra picks, that might be an added bonus.
When the Bolts traded up for Leaf, it was only one spot. When they traded down for Vick and Manning, it was only three and four spots. The only realistic trading partners, both in terms of compensation and salary cost, are never far away, and they may be next to you. Atlanta needs a QB, Raiders a RB, and KC and OT. And each has already budgeted for a top five pick. Why not deal with any or all of them?
March 15, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Bob,
You hit the nail on the head. I have been screaming for years that the trade value chart is obsolete and that trades in a draft should be made on the guarantee dollar amount of the draft slot or contract amount. For example lets take the Dolphins and the Cowboys. The Dolphins have to make room under the rookie salary cap for the first pick in the draft. The Cowboys have to make room under the rookie salary cap for two first round picks. I just bet the monies too sign two first round picks are close (if not more) then the money to sign the first pick in the draft. To me this is a no brainier trade that benefits all sides monetarily and player wise. The Dolphins need as many draft choices as they can get in the first three rounds to replenish the talent on their team and the Cowboys need a big name player because they have a new more expensive Stadium to sell tickets for. So my way is you trade one first round draft slot with a dollar amount attached to it for two first round draft slots. But if you look at the antiquated draft value chart this trade could never happen because the points don’t match up! Think about that! The draft slots have dollar value to them but we are trading points! What am I missing here? Now if someone told me that the points are equal to dollar amounts of each draft slot I would suggest they update those values quickly because using a trade value chart as it stands right now is a joke and excepting a trade with future draft picks could blow your cap all to hell in the future.
By the way don’t tell me the values for the draft slots change every year so this can’t be done. All you have to do is change the money value of each slot be the average percent the rookie pool goes up every year.
Drew
March 17, 2008 at 7:56 am
Drew,
What the Dolphins need is not as many draft picks as they can get, they need Hall of fame type players to go along with players like Satale and others…It will not be a one year thing….You do not pass on a talent like Gholston to trade way down in the first rd….I don’t think so as a Dolphin fan…that is way to far to slide…We need to trade only a few spots down at the most..And St. Louis is rumored to like Gholston also..
March 17, 2008 at 9:47 am
Robert,
That is the other way to think about it. But Vernon or any other draft pick as the first player is not going to turn your team around next year. Then add the injury factor into the equation and a team in the top five putting all their eggs in one basket is not a smart move. This is a team sport and if the Dolphins have done their homework then they know of players in this draft who have talent and although they might not have the over all talent that Vernon has all the Dolphins have to do is draft those players and coach better.
Lets just say the Dolphins make a trade with the Cowboys for the first pick in the draft and the Dolphins get # 22 & # 28.
Your saying to me that taking Vernon would be better for the team instead of drafting- Malcolm Kelly WR and Quentin Groves LB or maybe Aqib Talib DB & Chad Henne QB or Jeff Otah OL & James Hardy WR or Pat Sims DT & Gosder Cherilus OL. Vernon should be an excellent player but all of the players I have mentioned should also be excellent players and just as impacting.
We are conditioned to think that top ten players will automatically be more impacting then players taken later in the 1st round. It’s just not true. We can’t help ourselves to think that a top ten player will be more valuable to a team then a player taken from 11 to 32. The reason for this is because of that dumb trade value chart. It makes a draft slot seem more valuable but in reality there is not that much difference. Once a player is listed as having first round talent it is only the needs of teams picking those players that changes where a player might be drafted - not the talent. Every year we here stories about how good or bad the draft is and every year we here that there are at least 40 to 45 players that have a first round talent grade on them from everybody who does the draft. Now I ask you to tell me the difference of potential impact in all of those 40 to 45 players. I believe it is minimal or they should not have a first round talent grade! Quentin Groves has as much talent to impact for the team that drafts him as Vernon Gholston has. He is a little smaller and is coming off an injury but he has the same potential to impact. Now maybe I’m wrong but my point is that Miami has a list of players they could draft in the first round and the difference in the talent of those players is minimal and the Dolphins right now need as many potentially impact players they can get in this draft as possible. In fact in my opinion the Dolphins should look to trade down in all of the first three rounds. If the Dolphins pick Vernon this year and do not shore up the middle of their defense then it will be a wasted pick for one year until they do. Teams will just run between the tackles and take Gholston and Taylor right out of the mix. I know it’s hard to think this way because we have been conditioned to think that the 1st pick in a draft is more valuable then the 20th pick in a draft. The truth is only if the team picking has a big need at the position. Having the top ten pick in a draft means that you are supposedly picking the top ten players in the draft. The problem with that is – every team has a different top ten players list!
How many times have you heard of a team drafting a player in the third round who they had listed as a 1st round player? You are correct that you should first look for teams around too trade with but IMO all the teams who have top five picks in a draft should be open to making the best deal they can and move out unless the pick is going to be a QB.
Drew
March 17, 2008 at 10:34 am
Drew,
There is always a risk to drafting in the top 10…And certainly you can find great players later on…But having graded drafts since 1970, I still fill if you have the #1 pick and you have good scouts and people making decisions you stay in the top 5….Poor teams make bad decision no matter where they draft…Good teams with good people making personel decisions make good decisions….For every Audrey Bruce there is a Troy Aikman and more…Groves has questionable work ethic in my opinon and does not play up to the hype….Gholston is besides the Longs the hardest worker in this class and nothing will stop him from being a great Hall of fame player in my opinon. I have to go by my grading and not what others think….I value you opinon and think you are one of the best at grading players.
thanks
March 17, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Robert,
My point Robert is not if you agree with me on a player’s talent it is simple math to me. Would you rather pick two impacting players in the first round for the same amount of money as you can pick one impacting player? That’s the question. Your stance as I understand it is that you would rather pick one impacting player instead of two because you feel that one impacting player is more likely to be more impacting. I hope I stated that correctly.
I’m suggesting the more players you pick in the first three rounds, it seems reasonable to me that you lessen your risk of that draft failing to supply your team with impacting football players.
I’m not suggesting that every team in a draft look at the draft the same way but a team with a top five pick should be looking to gain more players in the first three rounds because chances are they are a long ways away from one impacting player turning the team around into a competitive team right away like a top five pick suggest. Don’t get me wrong there are exceptions to every rule like QB’s or a player who fits perfectly into a need position and is considered a top five player by everybody. The Dolphins may very well feel Vernon is that exception. But the Dolphins are the one’s that suggested they wanted to trade their pick not me. That being said your idea that the Dolphins should only trade a few spots down is logical but to accomplish this the Dolphins have to drum up the interest if they want to trade and to do that they should do what I said originally, start negotiations now with players they think other teams are interested in.
March 18, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Hey Drew:
Suggest you read Mike Reiss’(Boston Globe) mailbag @ (3/18)boston.com. If you are too lazy and are just interesting in scolding me, let me give you a hint “McFadden will not even be on the Patriots draft board”. I can’t view your new draft, but unless you are the most stubborn or uniformed person on the planet, I would expect that McFadden is slotted somewhere other than 7th to New England. And by the way, stop throwing the “wedlock card” in my face, I never mentioned that as being an issue. As for your experience at a bar fight, why am I not surprised? Fred Magnus
March 18, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Fred,
I’m not sure why you seem so angry. In the “Getting it Straight” post I was not scolding you. In fact far from it. I was just trying to explain to you my thinking on a Mock Draft. In fact I don’t disagree with you that McFadden MAY be gone by the time the Pats pick. It’s a simple Mock draft. As to “being to lazy” I’m not sure where that is coming from. As too my experience in a bar fight -it was to show you how easy it is for anybody to get sucked into a situation that they never intended to happen to them. As too the out of “wedlock” remark it was just a way to explain that Darren did nothing against the law and maybe you were being a little harsh on the kid. That was all that I meant by that remark. You seem to be very upset over a mock draft and for some reason you have taken personal offense to my suggesting that the Pats could pick McFadden in the first round with their first pick. I’m not sure why this bothers you so much and I’m not sure why you have taken what I said to such a personal level. I guess what I said bothered you and for that I’m sorry. It was not my intent to make you feel bad. It was only my intent to explain the mock draft and myself. As far as being a member I hope you sign up again this year. The site is meant to be a toll to form your own opinions and to entertain and have some fun. So I hope that you see the site the same way I do and become a member once again.
Drew
April 10, 2008 at 11:29 pm
Hey Drew,
I have thought for some time that Ryan was never really an option for them. BP is not a guy who historically takes QBs high. He drafted one but that one was rated as an exceptional prospect, even for a QB. How much did BP like him, well, he kept him around, actually playing till the guy was like a hundred. Would not be surprised if he ends up showing up at Miami down the line if BP doesn’t like his QBs. I’d say BP liked him a great deal. I don’t see that with Ryan. Ryan is a good QB prospect and I would not doubt he becomes a solid QB in the NFL. However, he is not an elite prospect. His arm is very average for a top prospect IMO. To me, he does not grade out as a 1# over all prospect.
The three guys I believe they are considering are Jake Long, Chris Long and Gholston. All three of these guys probably rate much higher. I think the fact that Condon is Jake Longs agent also says something. As you may well know, Condon and BP have worked well together in the past. Jake Long is exactly the kind of player BP likes. The guy has never had a penalty called on him in College. What pisses BP off more then anything? Stupid plays that create negative yards. His big thing is hidden yardage. They kill drives and BP hates that. I could see Jake Long being the guy.
Gholston is simply a freak athlete that BP would view as his prototypical OLB in a 34. I mean, if you think about what BP has in Miami, that team may get real good, real fast. There is a lot of talk about moving Jason Taylor in trade but if you add Taylor and Gholston to that 34, that’s going to be a real strong OLB pass rushing combination. They also have Joey Porter and Channing Crowder. That’s a pretty good ILB LB crew, as well. They have Keith Traylor and Paul Soliai who are going to fit perfectly into the style of play BP likes to us with his NTs. They have Matt Roth, who could also probably play OLB in a 34, Vonnie Holiday and Rodrique Wright who fit very well as DE in a 34. I mean, if you look at that front seven, they are pretty strong IMO. Good mix of youth and experience. Gholston would definatly be a guy who could really finish that defense off in the front seven. If they did elect to trade Taylor, then I could see them taking Gholston and playing him at WOLB and using Roth at SOLB as well. Gholston could make a lot of sense for Miami.
Chris Long is the player who is probably least valued, of the three but probably most appealing to BP. His position would probably be DE in that unit. If they kept Taylor and matched him with Roth at OLB, then you could play Wright and Long and Randy Starks at DE with Traylor, Ferguson and Sali at NT in a rotation. Still a very good front 7. Long is the kind of player that BP likes. Talented and a none stop motor. I don’t think he is the guy that gets taken here but if BP could somehow figure out a way to move down, I think Long would be a Fin. JMO.
They loaded up on DBs. They still have Allen and they signed Crocker, Killer, Nate Jones, to go with Jason Allen and the rest of the DBs.
They signed Wilford at WR, to go with Marty Booker and Ginn. They also picked up Sean Ryan at TE.
To be honest, the more I look at what they have, the more I think that it will be Jake Long if they stay at #1. There OL consists of Vernan Carey at LT, LJ Shelton at RT( who is gone I think), Satali at C (who is probably going to be a good one), Hadnot and Liwenski, both Guards are gone. They signed Smiley who will play Guard, and thats pretty much it. They absolutly have to have more OLs. They have to replace RT. Now, that could be Carey if they took Long and he could play LT or it could just be Long at RT. They only have a total of 7 OLs on the roster right now. They are missing 3 starters and zero depth. I gotta believe that BP is frantic to figure out how to trade down. They might just take less then expected for that #1 pick. They have to aquire three starters on the OL. They have to find a TE and they will get one in this draft IMO. The kid from ND perhaps. They probably need another starting CB as well. This team is not far off but I do believe that they could seriously be interested in trading down.
OL and CB is there real need. QB might be but they have Beck and they also have Matt Baker as development guys. McCown could just be there starter. Baker knows the system and I still believe that Beck is going to be a pretty good player in the NFL. He is exactly the kind of QB prospect BP would choose to bring along IMO.
Albert is actually the perfect pick for them but they need to trade down.
If they don’t trade out of #1, I think it’s got to be Jake Long.
Just some random thoughts Drew.
Take good care,
ABQ