Getting Things Straight
Posted by thehuddlereport.com on March 3, 2008
by Drew Boylhart
Let’s get some things straight right now - There IS first round wide receiver talent in this draft. The crap going around suggesting otherwise is just that, crap! This happens every year. This is why Rob and I started the two board system. You can now see talent in every round of the draft. The value of a player in a draft and the ability for a player to be successful at the next level in a draft are two different issues.
1) Talent does not fluctuate - Value does.
The value or draft position of a player will fluctuate because of team needs, free agent signings, depth of talent at a position and background issues.
Our Talent Board Rating (TBR) does not fluctuate because a players talent does not change.
2) Success in the NFL has nothing to do with the value of a player in a draft. It has to do with his talent, maturity, intelligence, injuries and the ability to be coached - not the value of a player to a team on a draft list.
Remember - scouts have all, if not most, of the information they are checking already before the combine starts. There might be some weight changes and some speed gained or lost but if you didn’t know that Darren McFadden RB Arkansas runs in the 4.30 range or Chris Johnson RB East Carolina also will run in that same range before the combine then you are not a very good scout. It might be exciting to the press but anybody that has watched film on any player in this draft should have a pretty good idea of how fast a player is compared too other players on the field! You look at my profile of Dominique Rogers Cromartie CB Tennessee State before any of this nonsense started. Do you really think that I was the only one in the entire football world who saw this type of talent? I waited for the Senior Bowl to see were his LTI might be but not to evaluate the talent I saw on film!
The truth about the wide receiver position in this draft is that teams who need wide receivers are signing them in free agency and therefore the need for a top WR drops and that makes the value of wide receiver position in general drop. You can think of the value board in the same way we think about the consumer price index figures. Need causes panic and also causes the overrating of the market value of a company and or a product. The product in this case are players and the immediate needs at a position, plus the needs of future free agency issues of players already on a team, plus injuries, plus age are the true driving factors of the changing value board. Not talent, talent is one constant that brings everybody back to reality.
So keep watching the value board to see were your favorite players might be picked in this draft but if that player has a good TBR attached to him then don’t worry about his success at the next level. That is if the TBR grade is right! Those are the facts and this is why THR started the two board system. Remember - think of the value board the same way you think about the consumer price index. That index or value can be manipulated by many different variables but the talent of a player is the talent.
March 5, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Hello Drew:
Saw your mock draft and was shocked to see New England’s choice. Not only did they spend a #1 on Maroney, but Sammy Morris and Faulk are still on board. But, most importantly, I have been told by someone close to the Patriots that they will never again draft a player from Arkansas after the Cedric Cobbs incident. The coaches at Ark. mislead the Pats as to the severity of the character concerns re Cobbs. If McFadden is a Patriot I will contribute $100 to the charity of your choice. fred magnus
March 5, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Fred - The Charity of my choice would be me! Here’s the deal. Vernon Gholston would be the best choice for the Pats but lets say he is gone and there is nobody that wants to deal with the Pats for a trade. That means they have to make a pick. So what pick would they make at that point of the draft that would show an impact on their team? Remember Maroney was a late #1 and has been injured a lot . You need more then two RB’s and Faulk is not a starting RB. Also think about this Brady, Moss, McFadden. If you are a defensive coach you tell me what defense do you use to go up against those three guys???? McFadden is an impact player BEFORE he walks onto the field, just like Brady and Moss are. Maroney is a good back but he is not McFadden. You got to the big game this year by out scoring teams. Your defense is going to take a few years to build back up. Your offense is your future. Feed your future.
March 7, 2008 at 7:44 am
Fred - As Far as Cedrick Cobb… all I can say is read my profile on him in the achives. The Arkansas coaches can not be blamed for the Pats picking him. That is an excuse. The Pats made a choice. They choose to overlook his off field issues because of his talent. They can’t blame the Arkansas coaches for that. If the Pats are making draft choices based on what college coaches say about a player then shame on them. The Pats are the one’s with egg on their faces not the college coaches.
March 9, 2008 at 10:47 am
Drew–As for the Cobbs fiasco–once shame on you, twice shame on me. The Pats will not draft a Razorback with off field problems again. I must certainly disagree with your assertion that the Pats need to upgrade their offense b/4 the defense. The offense will continue to be in the upper echelon with or without McFadden. The defense must be addressed NOW before the window closes (Brady/Belichick). If McFadden is on the board at #7, he will be a Cowboy & the Pats will select defense at Nos. 22 & 28. Thank you for your response, the offer ($100) is still on the table. Fred Magnus
March 9, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Fred,
Now don’t take me out of context. I said if the Pats HAVE to draft at #7 and McFadden was on the board and the other players like Long and Gholston are gone then they would look to take an impact player at any position. At that point with Gholston and Long gone McFadden becomes an impact player as a consideration for the Pats. Also I do not get were you think McFadden has bad charector. He does not have an arrest record and as far as having Children out of wedlock I would think that is not a problem. Lots of players in the NFL have children out of wedlock. Some teams might not like it but too my knowledge it has never stopped a player from being drafted. McFadden may have some maturity problems that I do not personally like but he is not a bad kid. He might be a bit of a dumb ass in his personal life but he is not a bad kid. I have never seen the kid tank it on the field! To me that is a signal the kid might have some problems. McFadden is not on any drugs, has not been arrested. He has gotten into some bar fights and had some kids out of wedlock but that does not mean he is a bad kid. Do I like that ? No! Does it make me think twice about drafting him? The Truth is I need more information then a few reports in a paper giving one side of the story. You have to be carefull with personal problems. You can’t label everybody as having bad charector becuase they go through life and make mistakes. It’s how they handle those mistakes that matter. I hasve profiled many players who have made mistakes who have handled those mistakes and not had any problems in the NFL.
Now to get back to your issue. Open up your mind. The Pats should look for players on either side of the ball that will impact. They need a RB. Granted it is not a big need but they do need an RB. Maroney is good. But in this day and age with injuries and free agency you need more then one back. I do think like you that it is a bit of a long shot but it is a possiblity.
Remember Fred - I said if the players that the Pats are interested in are not there at #7 and they can not trade out then it would be smart for them to pick McFadden. He is an impact player and he would upgrade your offense in a position that needs upgrading in.
March 9, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Drew–My reference was to the bar/nightclub rumbles. Do you not worry about what a person is thinking when he is involved in a rumble 90 days before he has the opportunity to earn the contract to set him up for life? I would be VERY concerned about his thought process and maturity and over the years the Patriots have avoided this type of personality. As for the children out of wedlock, that is a personal issue. I agree that players can change their ways, but just as often “leopards don’t change their stripes”. This aspect of McFadden was not my main issue, it is in my assessment New England will surely address their defense in the 1st rd–with CB & LB the focus–even if they have to pass on a more talented, but with questionable judgment player in McFadden.
March 10, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Fred,
I worry but - I do not know the whole story. One time I was in a bar and a fight broke out behind me and I got hit by a chair. I turned around and started to beat the crap out of the first person I found. I was never started the fight and I’m not sure the kid I smacked around was even a part of the fight.
Now this happened years ago when bar fights were not consided charector issues. I hope what McFadden learned is too stay out of the bars until after he is drafted. He is a young kid and he is going to go out but now he has to understand that he is a target. Again it might be dumb, it might be because he is a bit young. All I know is that he did not get arrested for DUI and he doesn’t have a record for DUI incidents to my knowledge. If he did then I would consider this to be a problem but a couple of bar fights is not a problem unless he gets hurt in them and can’t play. If McFadden has been going out all along and has not had problems in the past then why would he think anything about going out to a bar with a couple of friends like he has been doing for the last three or four years? To him its just going to be another night on the town. I don’t drink, in fact even when I was young I wasn’t much of a drinker. But I understand wanting to go out and have a good time and getting caught up with friends who get into to trouble and drag you into to something that was never your intent in the first place.
If you think McFadden is not a top 5 pick because he fumbles or you have concerns about other RB issues I can respect that. But taking him out of the top five because he had children out of wedlock and he got into a couble of bar fights I just don’t see it personally. I think the public in general is having knee jerk reaction to the Vick situation. I do not believe in lumping all players who have made mistakes together just because one player (Vick) screwed up. All I’m saying is lets keep charector issues to serious criminal problems and not to things that we disagree with personally but are not criminal in nature.
As too the Pats pick. I see your point all I’m trying to do is too open your eyes to the possiblity that defense may be a priority but and impact player in a position the could use an upgrade is something every team should be open too. Otherwise you miss out on a lot of impact players. So don’t be afraid to go to plan B. That’s all I’m saying. Think about it Brady, Moss, McFadden all on the field at the same time. You tell me that doesn’t make you think twice if your a Defensive Coach!